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Whenever I think about the passing chances for level 3, I wonder how many of the failing candidates chose to sit for the exam again?
About 50 out of every 100 candidates failed last year. If we put the probability of retaking the exam at 80%, this means that of the previous 50 candidates who failed, 40 (50*.8) will sit again for the exam. Since they are more prepared, both in terms of the amount of time they spent on the test and because they have the experience of failure, which can be a great motivator, about 80% of those forty will pass the test on the second try. In other words, 32 of the 40 people who retook the exam will pass it.
This means that the chance of passing for a first-taker is only about 18% (or 30% in Bayesian terms) in a room with 60%first-takers and 40%retakers. I just don’t see how a first-taker can overcome these odds while having a full-time job, family, etc. Unless you’re laid off, or have a very permisive work schedule, it seem like the format of the test sets you up for failure on a first-take.
 
That’s a lot of assumptions. Is there retake data provided by the CFAI?
Even if your math is correct, all this means is approximately 30% of first time takers will pass, thats not impossible… can you outscore 70% of your peers?
 
kjsgbp wrote:
That’s a lot of assumptions. Is there retake data provided by the CFAI?
Even if your math is correct, all this means is approximately 30% of first time takers will pass, thats not impossible… can you outscore 70% of your peers?
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I don’t think CFAI shares that sort of information.
Yeah, there are a lot of assumptions, but I see them as fairly realisitc.
Outscoring 70% of your peers is fairly difficult at level 3. The variability in study strategies, motivation, and intelligence is much smaller than for the other two levels, making candidates similar to each other.
In this picture Michael Phelps takes the gold from Milorad Cavic by half a palm. I believe that this sort of differential is what is seen at L3. You need to beat your peer by a very narrow margin, and that margin is more likely to be affected by external events that are out of your control (job, family), which puts first-takers at a disadvantage.
 
i just hope to pass. one and done. that way i dont fall victim to your EVIL math…haha
 
Passing rate is 50%. You just have to know more than the person sitting next to you to pass.
Doesnt sound too hard, unless you sit next to nerdy asians like me.
Good luck
 
cgy5478 wrote:
Passing rate is 50%. You just have to know more than the person sitting next to you to pass.
Doesnt sound too hard, unless you sit next to nerdy asians like me.
Good luck
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it’s not 50% for everyone. you have to consider conditional probabilities. It’s about 30% for first-takers and 80% for retakers in a room with 60%first-takers and 40%retakers.
 
I disagree with some of your assumptions. I can list them all, but I’ll just provide one, I believe the retake % is higher than 80. At this point, as in at level 3, the only people left are the people serious about passing, I would think the retake rate is higher.
 
kjsgbp wrote:
I disagree with some of your assumptions. I can list them all, but I’ll just provide one, I believe the retake % is higher than 80. At this point, as in at level 3, the only people left are the people serious about passing, I would think the retake rate is higher.
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i went on the conservative side. If retake % is higher or passing % for retakers is higher, then this lowers the probability for first-takers of passing the exam. I see the 30% estimate of passing the exam as a first-taker as a best case scenario.
regardless, people who think it’s 50/50 have it wrong because they don’t consider conditional probalities.
 
If ya’ll spend all this time studying instead of debating the conditional probabilies of passing, you’d be closer to passing
 
itera wrote:
If ya’ll spend all this time studying instead of debating the conditional probabilies of passing, you’d be closer to passing
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i knew you would come up here with this advice. point taken :)
 
For me personally, for the last 2 levels I use 350hours as a benchmark to measure the position where I am . That is pretty helpful in a way that I could see where I am in the process, also i believe when you really spend that amount of time to absorb the material, chances that you understand the material enough for the exam are high. Of course to translate into a PASS is another story. But the number of hours are somehow justified.
 
If I was a betting man, I’d say that re-takers have about a 66% (2-outta-3) chance of scoring Band 9 or better. And first timers have about a 40% chance of scoring in the same range.
p.s. I was once a Level III re-taker
 
You want that tiny margin above your peers, do the LevelUp Bootcamps with Marc. It’s a great competitive edge. You still have to work hard but you get an edge.
I think first time takers fail at such a high rate bc it take a cycle to learn how to study for L3: what to study, what review couse to take if you can afford one, what to spend time on, how to write, how they even grade the damn thing.
Don’t forget the 3 time test takers for L3, they do exist. I know two who passed L3 on the third shot, God have mercy on those candidates.
 
the only thing you should worry about beating is 70%. Don’t worry about what anyone is else doing
 
cgy5478 wrote:
Dont worry about things you cant control.
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+1. This was perhaps the best advice ever given to me.
Just get 70% or better on June 6th you’re golden. Anything else is a distraction.
EDIT: Sorry to duplicate what cgrady said
 
Stop being a kitty kat bro and study your tits off. I did level 3 having started a full time job in private equity in April…the second most important month of studying (May is the most). I lost two weeks of studying just because of work transition and then May was all working til at least 9pm…normally 10pm or later though and studying til 1am-2am and getting back up to do it all over again. Weekends were spent at the office studying (and work). It’s possible and if you overstudy you won’t fail. Most people fail because they study what they think is enough…WRONG…you have to study more than more than enough. 3/3 because I overstudied…almost lost my gf last year for it and had no social life for 4-6 months of each year 2012-2014…did CAIA inbetween too (so 5/5). Now is the time b…go be like Rudy.
 
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