JackA$$ Wrote:
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> He was right on his calls last fall, but wrong on
> how the market reacted. A company missed earning
> and the new drug was sent back for more testing.
Then he was wrong on his call. Why would the drug candidate be sent for more testing? Did it get a non-approvable letter, did an FDA panel request additional data, or what? In either case, these are pretty pivotal events over the course of a drug candidate's development timeline, so I can't see how his predictive abilities should be commended if he weren't able to anticipate this. Not saying that anyone else could have predicted it, but the reality is that if everyone knew which way the FDA would rule, far fewer people would be investing in biotech.
> He was short and the stock shot up. Then he was
> squeezed trying to get out. This happened quite a
> bit in 3Q06 and he took it on the chin. Rather
> than trade out or around a position, he stayed
> with his fundamental research. While you cant
> fault a guy for having conviction, you can if his
> conviction loses you -20%.
What stock was this?
> Who would you rather get your biotech
> recommendations from....Joe portfolio manager who
> cant tell his kindney from his splean or John MD
> who understands the science behind biomarkers?
You gain street credit with an MD, but there are also a lot of smart people on Wall Street without MD's or Ph.D.'s who can learn about this stuff. And plus, the reality is, a lot of firms have outside consultants who help them with such decisions, if needed.