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virginCFAhooker

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In my never-ending search to find a new industry to focus on I ranked 101 different industries by ROA, ROE, earnings growth history, earnings growth projections, number of analyst estimates per $1 of mkt. cap(less is better), insider ownership per $ of mkt. cap (more is better), institutional ownership per $1 of mkt. cap(less is better)... the results are:

highest ranked:

food processing
iron & steel
retail (dept. & discount)
air courier
fish & livestock
oil & gas integrated


The lowest scoring (ones you might should avoid?) are these industries:

auto parts
motion pictures
printing services
fabricated plastic & rubber
rental & leasing
electronic instruments & ctrls
biotech
semiconductors
waste mgt. services
oil well services
containers and packaging
forestry & wood products
hotels & motels
recreational activities
consumer finance
real estate

Real estate was the only industry that scored a "1".
 
"number of analyst estimates per $1 of mkt. cap(less is better)"

do you think this is really a valid metric?
 
good post, i was looking to check out some industries with low analyst coverage as well.

what did you use to screen?
 
This reminds me why I dislike screening so much.

I mean you highlight Real Estate as scoring low. Well I struggle to see what relevance EPS gowth is to a real estate company?!? If you had thrown in a price/nav metric Real Estate might have come out near the top.

The same goes for measuring biotech, finance stocks, etc

It's the same mistake the guy who valued google on a one year PE made - applying one metric to the whole market. Its like moaning that a marathon runner would come last in a 100m race - it might be true, but its a vapid observation.

And lets look at the top of the table, well, yeah, Iron & Steel have good return metrics - everyone knows that - but its a highly cyclical industry. The big question is how will those metrics look in five years. That's a judgement call that screening cant tell you.

And then you move on to the weightings issue. Should I give equal weight to the ROE as I do the proportion of institutional investors?!?? I'm not sure I should.

For these reasons I think screening across sectors is of limited use.
 
I can tell you right now oil field services is going to be huge as we move to more and more deepwater rigs.
 
HoldSideAnalyst Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I can tell you right now oil field services is
> going to be huge as we move to more and more
> deepwater rigs.

its not the move to deepwater rigs thats important (though it is happening), but:
1) the move from conventional to unconventional production (tar sands, CBM, tight gas, naturally fractured reservoirs, etc).
2) the move from exploration by the majors to secondary and tertiary recovery of brownfields,
3) the boom that will be coming in exploration by the NOCs (national oil companies) who don't have the skills to do this well on their own,
4) resource nationalization by the NOCs as the world runs out of cheap oil
etc ect

those are the real factors that are going to have huge impacts on oilfield services.
 
Nope, it's just deepwater. (kidding)

Actually the guys I was referring to are the offshore suppliers and deepwater drillers. Perhaps including them in "oil field services" is not entirely correct, but you make good points.
 
Young-Prof, I used AAII's "stock investor pro" database. It is updated weekly.

To the rest of you... if you're thinking about changing industries wouldn't you want to change to one that has the most potential, is undercovered and has the possibility to draw more coverage over time?
 
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