Barrons article on mortgage CDO's

JoeyDVivre

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Wow. That person doesn't have a clue and fills the article with false comparisons to the S&L debacle and misplaced sarcasm. I was really looking forward to some intelligent analysis from Barrons (which I really like), but that was awful.
 
I didn't read it but I'll check it out. I agree in that I like Barron's, but sometimes they try so hard to be bearish contrarians, it can get a bit tiring.
 
I guess that author forgot that the S&L crisis was pretty much caused by the banks' asset-liability mismatch due to rate spikes.

1) the higher rates meant higher payments for deposits
2) the fixed rate loans that the banks previously made meant relatively lower returns
3) this mismatch affects pretty much all your assets and liabilities
4) with little maneuverability options at that time, banks facing a 5% increase in rates in just over a year would and did choke liquidity.

Sure other factors contributed to the S&L crisis, but here's why I think some people are over-emphasizing the subprime issue.

4) subprime represents a larger portion now, but peaked at about 20~25% of total
5) about 10% of the subprime are delinquent
6) simple math says delinquent subprimes represent about 2.5% of the total mortgages
7) even if delinquencies double... that affects about 5% of the mortgages

This hardly looks like the armaggedon some people are predicting. Sure it'll leave a mark, but it's not going to kill the global market and its investors. And I really doubt we'll see a 5% increase in interest rates in the near term.

I totally agree with JoeyD that the S&L comparison was a poor one.
 
I'm a little less sympathetic to the S&L debacle than you. I think it was caused by moral hazard and the Keating Five.
 
Yeah, I agree. There were some dirty things going on at that time. Although Senators aren't perfect now, they are not as dirty... I hope.
 
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