Behavioural Finance Bonanza!

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Terry Shiver and Mary Trickett are portfolio managers for High End Investment Managers. High End provides investment advice to wealthy individuals. As part of their annual review of their client portfolios, they review the appropriateness of their client portfolios given their clients’ return objective, risk tolerance, time horizon, liquidity constraints, tax situation, regulatory situation, and unique circumstances.
Their boss, Jill Castillo, is concerned that Shiver and Trickett allow the clients’ behavioral biases to enter into the asset allocation decision. She has asked them to review their notes from meetings with clients and examine the clients’ statement for potential biases. The information below is excerpts from their notes, along with the client’s name.
Tom Heggins: “In the past five years, I have consistently outperformed the market averages in my stock portfolio. It really does not take a genius to beat a market average, but I am proud to say that I have beaten the market averages by at least 2 percent each year and have not once lost money. I would continue managing my portfolio myself because I know I could keep beating the averages, but with a new baby on the way and a promotion to Senior Vice President at my technology firm, I just don’t have the time.”
Joanne McHale: “The last three quarters were bad for my portfolio. I have lost about a third of my portfolio’s value, primarily because I invested heavily in two aggressive growth mutual funds whose managers had off quarters. I need to get back that one-third of my portfolio’s value because I am only fifteen years away from retirement and I don’t have a defined-benefit pension plan. Because of this, I am directing Mary Trickett to invest my savings in technology mutual funds. Their potential return is much higher and I believe I can make back that loss with an investment in them.”
Jack Sims: “I enjoy bird watching and hiking outdoors. I am an avid environmental advocate and will only invest in firms that share my concern for the environment. My latest investment was in Washington Materials. Washington was recently featured in an environmental magazine for their outstanding dedication to environmental protection. The CEO of Washington was also featured on the cover of Fortune magazine. He has turned the firm around in the three years he has been there. The firm was near bankruptcy, but now Washington is the leader in its niche market, which is waterproof fabric for outdoor clothing and equipment.”
1. Which of the following best describes Tom Heggins’s behavioral characteristic in investment decisions?
A) Tom uses frame dependence.
B) Tom is overconfident.
C) Tom uses anchoring.
2. Which of the following best describes the potential problem with Heggins’s investment strategy?
A) He will underestimate the risk of his portfolio and overestimate the impact of an event on stocks.
B) He will underestimate the risk of his portfolio and underestimate the impact of an event on stocks.
C) He will overestimate the risk of his portfolio and overestimate the impact of an event on stocks.
3. Which of the following most likely explains Tom Heggins’s behavior in investment decisions?
A) Tom uses anchoring to assess his skills.
B) Tom uses a top-down approach to assess his skills.
C) Tom uses the ceteris-paribus heuristic to assess his skills.
4. Which of the following best describes Joanne McHale’s behavioral characteristic in investment decisions?
A) Joanne is loss averse.
B) Joanne uses the ceteris-paribus heuristic.
C) Joanne’s regret too heavily influences her investment decisions.
5. Which of the following best describes Jack Sims’s behavioral characteristic in investment decisions?
A) Jack is overconfident.
B) Jack uses representativeness.
C) Jack uses frame dependence.
6. Which of the following would Heggins, McHale, and Sims be least likely to use when making investment decisions?
A) Heuristics.
B) Fundamental analysis.
C) Their personal experiences.
 
Yeah I have to change my second answer to B. I think I have worked it out in my pea brain.
 
mwvt9 Wrote:
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> Yeah I have to change my second answer to B. I
> think I have worked it out in my pea brain.
Atleast I know not to sit next to you during the exam… I can’t have the person I’m copying off changing their answers on me
 
that being said….
I think #2 is B as well, because over confident people tend to give to narrow of a forecast and somehow I think that applies to this situation. They underestimate an event and then are surprised when it turns out to be monumental
 
That is my thinking too. They are so sure the information they have is what matters, that they discount other information and are surprised when the events move prices adversely.
 
So i suck at this..
the answers were: BABABB
explanations are below..
Which of the following best describes Tom Heggins’s behavioral characteristic in investment decisions?
A) Tom uses frame dependence.
B) Tom is overconfident.
C) Tom uses anchoring.
Your answer: B was correct!
Tom is overconfident. Tom believes that on the basis of his five-year record, he can continue to outperform a benchmark. His record could be due to luck and he may be not reporting his shortcomings as an investor. (Study Session 3, LOS 10.d)
Which of the following best describes the potential problem with Heggins’s investment strategy?
A) He will underestimate the risk of his portfolio and overestimate the impact of an event on stocks.
B) He will underestimate the risk of his portfolio and underestimate the impact of an event on stocks.
C) He will overestimate the risk of his portfolio and overestimate the impact of an event on stocks.
Your answer: B was incorrect. The correct answer was A) He will underestimate the risk of his portfolio and overestimate the impact of an event on stocks.
As an overconfident investor, Heggins will tend to underestimate risk. He will also tend to overestimate the impact of an event on stocks. By overestimating the impact of positive events, he will likely experience negative surprises in the future. The overestimation of the impact of negative events will lead to positive surprises in the future. (Study Session 3, LOS 10.d)
Which of the following most likely explains Tom Heggins’s behavior in investment decisions?
A) Tom uses anchoring to assess his skills.
B) Tom uses a top-down approach to assess his skills.
C) Tom uses the ceteris-paribus heuristic to assess his skills.
Your answer: A was incorrect. The correct answer was B) Tom uses a top-down approach to assess his skills.
Tom likely uses a top-down approach to assess his skills. Overconfident individuals will presume that because they are successful in one area of their life, they can be successful in other areas as well. (Study Session 3, LOS 7.a)
Which of the following best describes Joanne McHale’s behavioral characteristic in investment decisions?
A) Joanne is loss averse.
B) Joanne uses the ceteris-paribus heuristic.
C) Joanne’s regret too heavily influences her investment decisions.
Your answer: A was correct!
Joanne is loss averse. Because she dislikes losses so much, she is willing to take more risk to make up the losses in her portfolio. She is investing her savings in technology mutual funds that will have much higher risk. (Study Session 3, LOS 8.a)
Which of the following best describes Jack Sims’s behavioral characteristic in investment decisions?
A) Jack is overconfident.
B) Jack uses representativeness.
C) Jack uses frame dependence.
Your answer: C was incorrect. The correct answer was B) Jack uses representativeness.
Jack uses representativeness to make investment decisions. He believes that just because a firm’s environmental policy and CEO are good, then the firm’s stock will be a good investment. He ignores the fact that the stock might be overvalued. (Study Session 3, LOS 7.a)
Which of the following would Heggins, McHale, and Sims be least likely to use when making investment decisions?
A) Heuristics.
B) Fundamental analysis.
C) Their personal experiences.
Your answer: B was correct!
These investors would be least likely to use fundamental analysis of financial statements. Behavioral investors will use their experiences, inferences, and heuristics (rules of thumb) to form investment decisions. They do not use scientific analysis. Their decisions are therefore prone to error. (Study Session 3, LOS 7.a)
 
3/6 that hurts
I totally understand that he is overconfident in question #1…but since he is giving up control…i chose something else
on #3, I haven’t heard of using top-down to assess your skills
I have lots more work to do
 
5 for 6 is awesome, mwvt.. i suck at this stuff. i didn’t even remember reading about the top down approach.
 
I actually went 4-6 . I don’t remember the top down thing either.
This stuff is so fluffy.
 
doh! you changed your answer, didn’t see that.
 
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