"bull market is imminent!!!"

I’m very pessimistic about the US. Production is extremely low and the only wealth growth of the last few years has come from the housing market which was obviously a bubble. We are coming back to our senses now but below there is little that can pull the US out.
Focus on Asia where the production does take place. And they will not export to the US because there’s no cash there and nobody will provide loans for the US anymore. Consuming + borrowing is a game that has ended abruptly, US has to produce and stop borrowing from the world before we can expect it to bounce.
 
U.S. produces…we have the greatest intellectual capital in the world. We also are the leaders in aerospace/defense…
Yes..China produces. But the U.S. will never be a nation that produces widgets…we will condume the crap out of them though.
I think this is healthy for the market and financial system. Every so often a time comes when the market excesses must be washed out. The end result will bifurcation…the haves and the have nots. Those with solid balance sheets and that have access to capital will prosper at the expense of those that are levered to the ears. I smell a few big M&A deals coming at us in the very near term-(not in the financials).
 
Ever taken a look at the US trade deficit? Now tell me that the US is a leading producer… The US is importing as hell and borrowing off-shore to finance it. Worked for years, now it’s payback time.
 
westbruin Wrote:
——————————————————-
> don’t click at first………….. guess who said
> this
>
> http://www.cnbc.com/id/27363513
>
> a bull market is imminent.”………. ok, i told
> out a few soft qualifers, but they weren’t much.
and Bet on RED…
The market will go up when ANALYTICS dictate it, just like an elevator will when the up button is pressed
 
in all seriousness, i posted this partially for a decent laugh.
but then again, i’m pretty sure bill gross knows more about the trade deficit and credit conditions than anyone here………… he might be a tad biased too though
 
All I know is that if I had $100,000 or $100,000,000 to invest, I’d be putting every red penny into equities given my age and the current valuations of the market. When people think the good times will never end (Spring 2007) is when you sell, and when people think their will never be good times (Now) is when you buy….I know I’m a bull…
 
I would agree with Halifax. But as to a bull being imminent, I HIGHLY doubt it. ONce again, not until the S&P BKX banking subindex out performs the broader S&P am I willing to use the word “Bull market”. Sorry. I just won’t.
Willy
 
Ya, bottoms are a fools game, but there is no doubt that an investor buying today, that does some reasonable rebalancing along the way, will be sitting very very pretty in 25 yrs…
 
mcpass Wrote:
——————————————————-
>
> Focus on Asia where the production does take
> place. And they will not export to the US because
> there’s no cash there and nobody will provide
> loans for the US anymore. Consuming + borrowing is
> a game that has ended abruptly, US has to produce
> and stop borrowing from the world before we can
> expect it to bounce.
Are you recommending buying Asian markets on the premise that they will not export to the US ?
 
This is the same guy who was calling for Dow 5000 in the early 2000s.
 
^ Lol. Dow 5000 is more of a reality now, than then, no?
14,000
- 8,000
=
6,000 off its highs.
In fact, we are 2/3 of the way to that prediction coming true.
 
Willy, I really don’t understand this argument you keep making. The BKX is up 10.5% from it’s lows in mid-July while the SPX is down 28.4% over the same timeframe. Wouldn’t that qualify as outperformance?
WillyR Wrote:
——————————————————-
> I would agree with Halifax. But as to a bull being
> imminent, I HIGHLY doubt it. ONce again, not until
> the S&P BKX banking subindex out performs the
> broader S&P am I willing to use the word “Bull
> market”. Sorry. I just won’t.
>
> Willy
 
Tobias I think you’re absolutely right. However, my arguement is more towards significant relative outperformance by the BKX over a period of about a month and a half. I am not sure we see that yet.
Willy
 
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