Just wanna share my opinion, everybody I knew passed, for me only 2 sections are 51-70 rest is 70+, same was for Level 1 exam.but other guys whom I knew and considered “not too bright” also passed. I dont want to look like egoist but some of them didnt know very basic stuff, how CFAI can allow those people to pass? Nonsense.
CFA Exams are too easy..
- Thread starter Dubinator
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You are always going to have a few get lucky at L1 and L2. I also know a few who ended up with 70+ in sections that by their own admission included entire vignettes that were guesses. i think those people will not be quite as lucky when it comes to the L3 essays.
krokodilizm
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- Jun 18, 2026
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That’s not a proper hashtag.
#thirdtimesthecharm
#thirdtimesthecharm
If you study, they are easy. However, as you say, there are always space for luck although it sounds unlikely.
0.333 probability of getting an answer right and assuming independent questions despite there are 20 cases, the probability of passing the exam by pure chance is like (0.333)^(120 x 0.65). Note that 0.65 is the assumed MPS.
Of course, a 0 probability does not mean the event is impossible. The probability of people dying in a plane is zero, however thousands have died around the world so far.
The conclusion is that another factor or factors make that 0 probability to be in fact much higher. About the CFA exams, it means that people still know their stuff and allow them to pass; and saying that they are not that “bright” results in a mistake. Perhaps they show themselves as not bright or easy going, however they can get the things correct when it is demanded. I know people like that, perhaps I’m one of those people too. I would prefer not to judge, nor the CFA exams, nor the candidates.
0.333 probability of getting an answer right and assuming independent questions despite there are 20 cases, the probability of passing the exam by pure chance is like (0.333)^(120 x 0.65). Note that 0.65 is the assumed MPS.
Of course, a 0 probability does not mean the event is impossible. The probability of people dying in a plane is zero, however thousands have died around the world so far.
The conclusion is that another factor or factors make that 0 probability to be in fact much higher. About the CFA exams, it means that people still know their stuff and allow them to pass; and saying that they are not that “bright” results in a mistake. Perhaps they show themselves as not bright or easy going, however they can get the things correct when it is demanded. I know people like that, perhaps I’m one of those people too. I would prefer not to judge, nor the CFA exams, nor the candidates.
krokodilizm
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- Jun 18, 2026
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I think that would be the case if questions were dependent.
Apparently the formula is more complicated
Where
P(x)=probability of x
n=number of trials
x=number of successes
p=probabillty of success
q=1-p=probabilty of failure
https://www.algebra.com/algebra/homework/Probability-and-statistics/Prob...
The_BigGuy
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- Jun 18, 2026
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I also know plenty of bright people that think they can half ass their way through level I and can’t and even a few experienced professionals who get through level I, think they can study a month for level II, fail and just never try again. I don’t think the CFA exams requires you to be bright, I’m average, but you do have to put in the time. I guessed a lot but for the most part mine were educated guesses.
S2000magician
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- Jun 18, 2026
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Congratulations! You just revealed the (Level I) binomial formula!
krokodilizm
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Which proves the point you can pass the exam while being ignorant!
Don’t recall using that formula.
Why you say you can pass the exam while being ignorant? Did you forget to apply the formula first?krokodilizm wrote:
Which proves the point you can pass the exam while being ignorant!
Don’t recall using that formula.
The probability to pass L2 exam using the binomial formula assuming a 65% MPS is 3 x 10^(-13).
My (simplistic) math went further with a probability of just 5.6 x 10^(-38).
As you can see, both are virtually zero.
krokodilizm
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0.333^78 assumes you have to get all 78 questions right in a sequence, much like in “Who wants to be a millionaire”. In reality you only need to get any 78 out of 120 correct, hence the permutations component of the binomial formula.
krokodilizm
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It’s the same. The formula works and yields a number in the order 13.
For comparison, 0.33^78 is a number in the order 38, which is ridiculously large (lower probabilities) because it is much more difficult to get 78 questions right in a row!
krokodilizm
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I was joking that we passed L1 but don’t know how o solve a L1 quant questionHarrogath wrote:
Why you say you can pass the exam while being ignorant? Did you forget to apply the formula first?krokodilizm wrote:
Which proves the point you can pass the exam while being ignorant!
Don’t recall using that formula.
The probability to pass L2 exam using the binomial formula assuming a 65% MPS is 3 x 10^(-13).
My (simplistic) math went further with a probability of just 5.6 x 10^(-38).
As you can see, both are virtually zero.