CFA I - Answer patterns.....

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luisdosal

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Hi everybody,
Did anyone notice that in "some parts" of the AM and PM exams were a tendency for the B answer and in the other exam the C......,

Regards,
Luis
 
Noticed that too.. it actually made me lean towards "B" for questions I was clueless about!!
 
Yep. I instantly thought about pattern searching phenomenon described in the book "How We Know What Isn't So". The chance of getting 4 or 5 same consecutive letters is not that small. Theoretically, it is a good reason to stay away from "B" as a guessing choice.
 
I can't stand it when you have 4 or 5 of the same straight answers in a row. Drives me crazy. I agree about the Bs and Cs. I would bet big money that option A is only used 25% of the time. It seems like the CFAI likes to put a good sounding answer in for option A making you oblivious to B and C. Always read all of the answer choices.
 
Actually, each question is an independent statistical probability that is unrelated to the previous one. i.e the same 33.33% probability of choosing the right answer at random stays no mater what the preceding answer was..
 
maskati Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Actually, each question is an independent
> statistical probability that is unrelated to the
> previous one. i.e the same 33.33% probability of
> choosing the right answer at random stays no mater
> what the preceding answer was..

I realize that but I'm not talking about probability. Let's say the exam is 99 questions to make everything simple. So you would see a test with 29As, 35Bs, and 35Cs. I think the CFAI weighs options B and C a little more.
 
Maskati,
your leaning toward "B" implies you didn't believe the pattern was random... independent probabilities are out of the window as soon as such additional information enters the picture.

This is a fun clip illustrating variable change (starts at ~3:10)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ByeFJcIaTZw

I personally don't believe any non-random patterns were present so picking letter "B" would have been as good as any other. I had to guess on 20 or so questions and I picked all A's...
Cheers
 
Thought it was only me. Got a bit nervous when the consecutive B's or C's looked to much. Have to agree with Chuckrox8 also think that the A was only used 25% of the time.
 
Except you follow the Technical trading rules, why will you believe in pattern? particularly as trading rules have been proven to be inefficient, I follow fundamental analysis by carefully reviewing all the new information on each independent question.

Just kidding....-:0)
 
There were sections of 4 B's and 4 C's in a row I know for sure were right, CFA just does this to F with you, same on the mocks
 
Hi,

I agree with you all that there appeared to be a large number of B's in the morning paper and large number of C's in the afternoon paper. However, I don't think that this is inconsistent with the correct answer being allocated a letter (A, B or C) randomly.

I would be astonished if the correct answers were not allocated a letter randomly.

It's quite encouraging that we all observed the same phenomenon, though.
 
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