CFA Pass Rates Misleading?

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whodey

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I met a guy last month at a local CPA society meeting that is also a charterholder and actually used to be a grader for the Level II & III essays years ago. (I don�t think LII even has essays anymore, so that may give you a timeframe.) Anyway I was talking to this guy about the pass rates (comparable to the CPA exam) and he told me that in his opinion, the ~40% was a poor estimate and thinks its probably a lot higher than that for candidates who actually show up for the exam. He claims that, at least when he was working for AIMR, they would include candidates who signed-up for the exam and didn�t bother to show up (which was not an insignificant number) in the published passing stats, which of course averaged them down.

Does anyone else think this is still the case? I�m sure some prepare more prepared than others, but I have a hard time believing that a significant number of people who shell out $1K+ (for first times) wouldn�t at least show up. Any thoughts?
 
whodey Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I met a guy last month at a local CPA society
> meeting that is also a charterholder and actually
> used to be a grader for the Level II & III essays
> years ago. (I don�t think LII even has essays
> anymore, so that may give you a timeframe.)
> Anyway I was talking to this guy about the pass
> rates (comparable to the CPA exam) and he told me
> that in his opinion, the ~40% was a poor estimate
> and thinks its probably a lot higher than that for
> candidates who actually show up for the exam. He
> claims that, at least when he was working for
> AIMR, they would include candidates who signed-up
> for the exam and didn�t bother to show up (which
> was not an insignificant number) in the published
> passing stats, which of course averaged them
> down.

Not the case. Only those that pay, show up and write both parts of the exam are used in the calculation of pass rates.

Sorry.
 
mwvt9 Wrote:
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> Not the case. Only those that pay, show up and
> write both parts of the exam are used in the
> calculation of pass rates.
>
> Sorry.

Yeah, I had a hard time believing that, maybe at one time but not today...or he could have just been completely full of sh*t.
 
>Yeah, I had a hard time believing that, maybe at one time but not today...or he could have just been completely full of sh*t.

Pass rates have been trending downward in the past couple decades, so it's likely the latter.
 
You can tell that he's wrong, because they usually publish/announce the number of people sitting for the exam beforehand, and when you look at the detailed passing percentages and numbers after the fact its lower.
 
I am sure I read somewhere that no-shows and incomplete exams (i.e. showed up for AM, but not for PM) were not included in the pass rates....
 
CFAI specifically says they don't count no shows in the pass rate.
 
that is correct. the pass rate is passed on the people who sat for both am and pm exams
 
whodey Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I met a guy last month at a local CPA society
> meeting that is also a charterholder and actually
> used to be a grader for the Level II & III essays
> years ago. (I don�t think LII even has essays
> anymore, so that may give you a timeframe.)
> Anyway I was talking to this guy about the pass
> rates (comparable to the CPA exam) and he told me
> that in his opinion, the ~40% was a poor estimate
> and thinks its probably a lot higher than that for
> candidates who actually show up for the exam. He
> claims that, at least when he was working for
> AIMR, they would include candidates who signed-up
> for the exam and didn�t bother to show up (which
> was not an insignificant number) in the published
> passing stats, which of course averaged them
> down.
>
> Does anyone else think this is still the case?
> I�m sure some prepare more prepared than others,
> but I have a hard time believing that a
> significant number of people who shell out $1K+
> (for first times) wouldn�t at least show up. Any
> thoughts?


There are tons of people who don't show up. The pass rate a couple of years ago when I had all this info calculated by # passes/# who paid for the exam was slightly less than 25% when the pass rate was probably 40% as published by CFAI (I don't remember the exact numbers, but I use the stat to beat people on the head when they ask questions like "which sections can I omit?" and I tell them "only 1 in 4 people in your spot passes, make your own call").

As a former grader myself, I can positively assure you that CFAI doesn't share any policy with you as a grader except about the question you are grading. They also do a little group talk fest about what acceptable means for that question so they can do the Angoff thing.
 
Nothing for L I or L II anymore. L II used to be all essay, then half essay. Graders read the essay answers on L III now.
 
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