mo34 Wrote:
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> Can you find any model that actually works ( back
> tested for years) ?
>
> I remember reading a book that tested the most
> common TA models ( momentum and reversal models)
> and proved that they do not add any value when
> commission and slippage are included.
can you find any FA model which actually works, back tested for years?
I have also read some research papers which have tested most common TA models and concluded that it doesn’t work.
The point is subjectivity, when you do TA, you are ready to accept that your strategy will fail but more importantly you know what kind of news will make that happen.
I have really never seen anyone who does TA without looking at news and fundamentals, neither I take TA as set of arbitrary rules, and many times different rules contradict each other. I take TA as a tool to gauge behavioral aspect and sentiment of market, I combine it with FA to make final judgment and FA doesn’t means that EMH is true.
This is an eternal discussion, and it can go on and on, you really have to use it yourself to find it’s worth, rejecting it just by testing a set of simple rules won’t help you any bit, it didn’t helped any professor who published such results in a desperate attempt to publish a paper. TA is used a lot in market, most of the time its used along with FA.