I don’t think you (or most people, for that matter) can ever presume that they “will” get into a top program. As you already know, and as you and I have discussed privately, it’s about much more than just numbers, pedigree, etc. I’m pretty involved with my school’s admissions process and, at least for my school, it is my impression that the candidates that are tend to be most preoccupied with numbers tend to miss other things that matter such as intangibles, quality of presentation, continuity of career story, and an overall “wow” factor that we often look for as a proxy for leadership capabilities. Things like GMAT scores can be cultivated over several weeks of reputation; intangibles take a career or potentially a lifetime to cultivate. In the end, it’s often the the less quantifiable characteristics that separate those that get in from those that don’t.