China and India - a horse race?

bchadwick

New member
Joined
Jun 18, 2026
Messages
0
Reaction score
0
Tough call. China has more hidden risks due to its authoritarian structure. It will grow faster short term, but has a larger chance of large social upheaval that takes you back to zero (or at least a long way). India has a larger chance of muddling through without that (though Muslim-Hindu stresses may cause problems with India).

I give the edge to China, but only because the religious strife in India (stoked in part by Pakistan, and also Al Qaida) could ultimately be as serious as simmering economic tensions in China.
 
What does that even mean "can't trust itself" even mean?

But seriously, both China and India are very corrupt. The difference is that China's political power is centralized enough that they can effectively implement their economic agenda. Sure, people in India can vote for whatever government that they want. The problem is that most of the voters are uneducated poor people who have no idea what constitutes a good government. As a result, India's political scene is basically a @#$%&-flinging ideological clash characterized by religious and caste violence, terrorism, and various parts of the country trying to secede at any given time.

In this sort of environment, it's more effective (at least from an economic growth perspective) to have an elite ruling class that has the power to subjugate the uneducated poor to its will. Starvation in China was not so much of an issue as it is in India, since the Chinese government could unilaterally declare that everyone can only have one kid. Are peasants in China getting unruly because they're being used as cheap exploited labor for the government's growth agenda? It's not a problem, since the government can just send in the army to make an example of them. You can't pull this sh*t in India.

Both China and India have enormous growth potential due to their tremendous level of undeveloped human resources. However, China's government is in a better position to take advantage of these resources without the interference of random political variables. While, democracy is arguably good for economic development in rich countries, this is not a case in India, whose voters are mostly uneducated poor. Because of these reasons, China, not India, will be the next superpower.
 
Of course I would Carson. Read my post again, I said that I prefer a system that is more "segmented and discriminatory" than China's, and one that is "means tested." However, in the presence of said system I should be able to easily demonstrate that I can currently support at least 3 children, and since I never want to have more than 2 I would be perfectly fine with a letter telling me how many kids (at most) I can have (the decision re how few, however, would remain with me).
 
More on topic according to L3 CFA texts China will grow faster during the first of the next 50 year, whereas India will be the only one of the BRICS to have sustained growth of over 5% in the second half of that 50 year period.
 
^ Hey adavydov7, what are the main reasons L3 texts gave?



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at Thursday, February 25, 2010 at 12:01PM by AlphaSeeker.
 
adavydov7 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> More on topic according to L3 CFA texts China will
> grow faster during the first of the next 50 year,
> whereas India will be the only one of the BRICS to
> have sustained growth of over 5% in the second
> half of that 50 year period.


I vaguely remember a reading like that. I always wonder how people predict what the growth rates are going to be, 50-100 years in the future. Sometimes I have a hard time figuring out what I'm going to make tomorrow.
 
TripARated Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> China by a landslide. India is too unruly and
> corrupt.


Let's hope you dont work for a debt rating agency based on your username and that comment. China is much more corrupt.
 
Jscott24 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> in all seriousness, infanticide...

Jscott24, F-U. I just threw up at your post! Dude.
 
India is the tortoise, China the hare. China is likely to be ahead for a long time before India begins to close the gap. I do not think India will be able to plug the gap in the next 20 years. The only scenario in which this may be true is if China self-destructs.
 
They're not comparable. Chinese economic reforms started over a decade before India's.

However, China's population is going to grow older before it starts getting richer.
 
Jscott24 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> in all seriousness, infanticide...


this is only an anecdote but amazed me. about a year ago I was in china and booking a bus ticket. The young travel agent was pregnant and we were chatting... I asked her if she knew if it was a girl or boy and she said that she did not because they do not allow ultrasound techs to tell you until you are past 7 months. She went on to tell me that they do this to prevent women from being beaten since often husbands will try to induce miscarriages if they find out they are expecting a girl. I was kind of shocked- more so by here tone. She explained it in a kind of nice "oh you know those silly boys" kind of way; as if it were somehow understood or accepted that they would react that way.
 
akanska Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> this is only an anecdote but amazed me. about a
> year ago I was in china and booking a bus ticket.
> The young travel agent was pregnant and we were
> chatting... I asked her if she knew if it was a
> girl or boy and she said that she did not because
> they do not allow ultrasound techs to tell you
> until you are past 7 months. She went on to tell
> me that they do this to prevent women from being
> beaten since often husbands will try to induce
> miscarriages if they find out they are expecting a
> girl. I was kind of shocked- more so by here
> tone. She explained it in a kind of nice "oh you
> know those silly boys" kind of way; as if it were
> somehow understood or accepted that they would
> react that way.

And my wife thinks I'm a bad husband because we don't visit her parents too frequently. I'll tell her tonight during dinner: "you could have born in China you know?".
 
> chatting... I asked her if she knew if it was a
> girl or boy and she said that she did not because
> they do not allow ultrasound techs to tell you
> until you are past 7 months. She went on to tell
> me that they do this to prevent women from being
> beaten since often husbands will try to induce
> miscarriages if they find out they are expecting a
> girl.

Sex determination is banned in India too. You only get to know the sex once the baby comes out.

India's sex ratio is skewed in a few states in favor of the males due to rampant female infanticide.
 
A trend in China is educated women do not want to have child due to high time and cash costs.
Those who plan to have the second babe may pay the penalty (US$30,000 or so) or alternatively, give birth in US, HK etc at similar cost.
 
there was a good article talking about this stuff in the hbr in dec '07:

http://hbr.org/2007/12/china--india/ar/1


"Moreover, the argument runs, China and India are business rivals at heart. The former�s remarkable economic rise threatens India, which trails its neighbor on almost every conventional socioeconomic indicator. China may be strong in manufacturing and infrastructure and India in services and information technology, but the latter�s manufacturing industry is becoming globally competitive, while China�s technology sector threatens to match India�s in a decade. Both have a growing appetite for natural resources such as oil, coal, and iron ore, for which they compete fiercely. They also fight for capital, especially for investments by multi-national companies from North America, Europe, and Japan. All this makes it difficult to believe that China and India can ever cooperate. Few people think to ask, �Can China and India work together?� Instead, a big question debated in boardrooms is whether India can catch up with China."
 
Let's talk about Education system. Isn't that a predictor of a country's GDP growth in the long run? Can u trust the numbers being put out by the chinese govt? how evil can a search engine be for it to leave a country?

Democracy can defintely be a handicap. Look at US. Our poiticians spend more time on worrying about reelections and their campaign funds. Does that mean we need to do away with elections and have the same congressman until he annoints his son to his seat in the name of stability???

we stand to lose if we dont buckle up and take China and India seriously.
 
Back
Top