Conservatism Bias - too much or too little turnover?

[archived_user]

Guys, on Schweser p.92 on Book I, they mention that “conservatism can lead to either too little or too much change and turnover”. They also say that easy changes may be made too often since they involve little mental effort.
Can anyone clarify what they mean? Isn’t this bias the inability to update for new info? So, it wouldnt matter whether it is easy or complex information, even though complex info would be even less likely to be processed and considered. In the end, if an individual has this bias his portfolio turnover will be always lower, no?
thanks!!

 

[archived_user]

FULL DISCLOSURE: I have NOT started officially studying yet.
However, I read that page you cite, and i would have to disagree with your assessment that conservatism always leads to lower portfolio turnover. I think it depends on the existing strategy in place. Conservatism appears to be a bias towards not wanting to put in the effort to incorporate new complex, difficult, time consuming information to the existing strategy. It is easier to just keep doing what your doing. The existing strategy may require a lot of turnover and trading, but comes easy to you, because its what you have been doing all along. Now a colleague gives you new information about the central bank tightening monetary policy and you fail to re-evalaute the portfolio for needed adjustments. If it was properly re-evaluated then you may think less turnover is more appropriate. I think it all depends on the situation currently, and how new information affects it.
Again, I could be way off but hopefully someone else can chime in.

 

[archived_user]

Schweser is correct. Conservatism bias is leaded by the inability of processing new complex data, so the investor underweights new info and under-reacts to it. However, it also states that when new easy info is available the investor will over-react to it making any change more likely. In conclusion, conservatism bias can lead to high or low portfolio turnover depending on how the new info is.
Also check the curriculum if you want (Book 2). It states the same.

 

[archived_user]

Yep. And anchoring and adjustments bias seems same as conservatism but it’s different. First is described as emotional and another as cognitive one. Why? I still cannot differ between those and yet not able to explain.

 

[archived_user]

Conservatism is most often than not consistent with low turnover, and it will be more acute when the new info is complex. Easily processed information will make the bias less binding. Pushed to the extreme, people could overreact to easy info and trade excessively but that would then get into the sphere of the representativeness bias.