Level 3 PM is way underrated in difficulty. The cliche is that the average successful candidate fails miserably on AM and then gets 80+ on PM to escape with a pass. I’ve never agreed with the notion that PM is easy, or that 80+ is attainable except for the absolutely most skilled of candidates.
AM is easier to the extent that you’ll recognize the material and have some idea for an answer. The problem is that they grade it very hard and want precisely what they want and won’t accept anything else. There are many (perhaps most) of the PM questions though (especially ethics) where you might as well try to eliminate 1, do a 50/50 and hope for the best. People score better on PM, but only because you’re going to get 33% right no matter what. Not necessarily so on AM.
As for the bet, I don’t gamble, but if I did, I’d put my money on CEO 10-K DAY passing.