Estimated MPS 58% to 63%

Really?! The minimum passing score might have been as low as 63% recently? You just made my day.
 
fuck this, why the heck would you waste a second of your remaining pre-exam life on this - try revising equities instead
 
^Word.
Aim for 80% in your mocks, so you’ll have some room on D-Day.
 
shootforthestars1 wrote:
fuck this, why the heck would you waste a second of your remaining pre-exam life on this - try revising equities instead
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Pardon my curiosity. I would revise Equities if I weren’t getting 6/6 on the vignettes… (FR&A and Derivatives are a different story hahaha)
 
Would anyone like to actually address the question? I’m really just trying to understand their methodology.
 
The Nature Boy wrote:
shootforthestars1 wrote:
fuck this, why the heck would you waste a second of your remaining pre-exam life on this - try revising equities instead
Click to expand...
Pardon my curiosity. I would revise Equities if I weren’t getting 6/6 on the vignettes… (FR&A and Derivatives are a different story hahaha)
Click to expand...
Well then that calls for a hi5 matey…well done!
 
Can’t speak to their methodology but the MPS is likely something below 70% for all levels, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it were as low as 60% (or maybe even a percentage point or two lower) some years. This is a bit of a guess, to be fair, but it seems to me like you pass if you get 70%+ in all sections, and you can pass with plenty of 50-70% sections and even a couple <50% sections, if you crush the big boys. All of this is pointless though, just do the best you can, enjoy your 8 weeks of assuming you passed (a must, IMO), and see how it shakes out in late July.
 
Here’s how I look at the 58-63% MPS.
Part of the analysis is guessing because only three buckets of scores are disclosed, so the most critical component in coming up with an MPS is what assumptions you use for 0-50%, 50-70%, and >70% buckets.
In guessing the MPS, the most generous scenario would be using 0%, 50% and 70% for each of the categories, and the most pessimistic scenario would be using 49.9%, 69.9% and 99.9% for each of the three categories.
Now obviously the two scenarios are unlikely, so you have to come up with a “reasonable assumption” for the three categories. You can argue 40, 60 and 80 would be “reasonable,” but you don’t know for sure. I would say coming up with a confidence interval doesn’t add any value because you don’t even have an observed mean to begin with.
The difference you talked about can happen when you have a band 10 failed result applied with not so generous assumptions and a barely passed result applied with generous assumptions.
And I wrote this during my study break…I’m heading back to practice tests.
 
JDP wrote:
Here’s how I look at the 58-63% MPS.
Part of the analysis is guessing because only three buckets of scores are disclosed, so the most critical component in coming up with an MPS is what assumptions you use for 0-50%, 50-70%, and >70% buckets.
In guessing the MPS, the most generous scenario would be using 0%, 50% and 70% for each of the categories, and the most pessimistic scenario would be using 49.9%, 69.9% and 99.9% for each of the three categories.
Now obviously the two scenarios are unlikely, so you have to come up with a “reasonable assumption” for the three categories. You can argue 40, 60 and 80 would be “reasonable,” but you don’t know for sure. I would say coming up with a confidence interval doesn’t add any value because you don’t even have an observed mean to begin with.
The difference you talked about can happen when you have a band 10 failed result applied with not so generous assumptions and a barely passed result applied with generous assumptions.
And I wrote this during my study break…I’m heading back to practice tests.
Click to expand...
That makes more sense. I appreciate the response.
 
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