I am new to Fixed Income thinking so I need to dumb it down and think in basics to get the directionality right. Here is how I think about it:
If I think that forward rates are pointing higher than I expect future rates to be, then I am buying bonds. I buy when bonds are undervalued.
Algebraically it is the discount rates that causes this (beginning sections of Reading #43), but I am just using basic logic to work through these tryoes of questions.
Since forward rates pretty much always point higher with a non-inverted yiled curve, it seems that maybe bonds are always overvalued. I *think* that the non-Pure Expectation theories of the Term Structure attempt to address this. I just haven’t done the deep thinking on this stuff, yet.