Fun game: Predict 2012 June L3 pass rate!

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hazzler

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How about keeping the tension from creeping up your necks as you wait for the results by predicting the pass rate for the June L3 exam.. My guess is 48%.. Any takers?
 
My guess is 45%. Will update guess after Level II results. The past four years the past rate has been 7-8% greater than the Level II pass rate.
 
The passing L2 class had a higher pass rate, so I predict a lower L3 pass rate this year. 46%-48%
 
you guys should make it interesting…i.e. involving stakes…whoever got the right prediction should receive something.
 
i think the passing rate for level 3 this year will be 50% on the dot, simply because its the 50th anniversary of CFAI lol
 
We shall have a better guesstimate on the passing rate for level 3 once the levels 1 & 2 results come out in 12 hours..
 
maggot wrote:
We shall have a better guesstimate on the passing rate for level 3 once the levels 1 & 2 results come out in 12 hours..
Click to expand...
So you’re anchoring your estimate based on L1 and L2 pass percentages? There’s so much fail there…
 
L3 passing rate has been 7-8% higher than L2..so my guesstimate is that L3 passing rate will be 49-50% :)
 
maggot wrote:
L3 passing rate has been 7-8% higher than L2..so my guesstimate is that L3 passing rate will be 49-50% :)
Click to expand...
+1
(estimates based on last 4 years.)
I remember looking around during the exam thinking all I have to do is beat half these guys and I’m thru!
 
The status quo trap. And overconfidence bias expressed as prediction overconfidence and certainty overconfidence with the common element HOPE! Raising the pass rate for many shows their hope to pass.
 
For the 50th Anniversary I think CFA are going to just say “Fuck It, pass ‘em all for a change”, so………100%!
 
if the market trades based on cfa pass rates then we are in big trouble. I think the 49-50 range will be accurate if not close.
 
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