In 2015 exam the key to pass will be AM not PM

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sadeeabd83

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We all know that PM exam was straight forward for majority of candidates which will put significant increase in relation to MPS. Based on this fact, I think whoever score less than 65% in AM will have very small chance to pass.
what do you think about it?
 
I think it would all depend on the overall score based on AM and PM alltogether…
you may be right if majority of folks do well in PM session the AM would be a deciding factor and we are about to find out in Aug.
 
I would agree in the sense that more people will expect poor results for AM, which could result to be the bottleneck. I haven’t read one statement saying that someone has not finished the PM…
 
The biggest uncertainty lies in how they mark the AM. I have read many posts where candidates thought they did very well on AM but then their score did not turn out that great.
It does come down to the AM performance in the end as PM went well for majority.
 
The morning grading will be based on key words. I heard some rumors that graders look for key words only and if they don’t find it they will not give a credit.
 
My biggest concern is that instead of using short phrases or bullet points, I have written rather long sentences.
Hope they don’t reduce credit for lenghty answers if the key words are still addressed
 
My view you write short if you know the answer for sure, and if you aren’t sure than try to elaborate while using the key words in the questions, worst come to worst you will use the general logic if you don’t know the answer the last does not guarantee the partial marks though…
on the question why majority feels great on AM and then find themselves in the band area is that most folks who finishes the am session write and write and that gives the psychological booster of the accomplishment without probably realizing that they might not be correct… Here I am not denying the fact that some folks get what their spider senses told them eg bombarded AM session…
for me if you have a strong feeling that you got 85 on AM discount it and most probably it is 65-70 range!
On PM things are more straight forward since the probability of curvilinear the wrong question is only 67% hence majority exhibit the close confidence ranges!
neverthereless I would not undermine the efforts that each folk has put in so far ! Beat of luck
 
sadeeabd83 wrote:
We all know that PM exam was straight forward for majority of candidates which will put significant increase in relation to MPS. Based on this fact, I think whoever score less than 65% in AM will have very small chance to pass.
what do you think about it?
Click to expand...
Respectfully, I wholeheartedly disagree. I agree with your premise, but an AM score <65% (say 60%, for example) and a “higher” PM score, based on your premise that most ppl did well on the PM (so, let’s say 80%, for example), would give an average score of 70%, a score which you argue would not be a passing score? Again, respectfully, I wholeheartedly disagree.
This forum is skewed with the more “serious” candidates, I would argue, so the overwhelming consensus that the PM was “easy” and the AM was fair, skews one’s belief that you must be the creme de la creme to pass this yr. I would contend that 15% of the L3 test takers did not put more than 100hrs in, and another 25% certainly underestimated this beast and I’m sure barely practiced the AM session. Those sorts of folks are not the (above) avg Joes who are posting on this forum.
An AM score of 55-65, assuming did fairly well on the PM (i.e. 70%+), would be a passing score, in my opinion.
 
sadeeabd83 wrote:
The morning grading will be based on key words. I heard some rumors that graders look for key words only and if they don’t find it they will not give a credit.
Click to expand...
A “rumor” is when Rhonda tells Tony that his girlfriend, the head cheerleader, made out with Ricky on Monday after 3rd period on the soccer field. The rumor you heard about the graders only looking at key words, and ignoring everything else, even if it’s correct, is just as sound and warranted as the rumor about Tony’s whore girlfriend (who was actually out sick that day with strep throat).
 
JuniorCk8 wrote:
A “rumor” is when Rhonda tells Tony that his girlfriend, the head cheerleader, made out with Ricky on Monday after 3rd period on the soccer field. The rumor you heard about the graders only looking at key words, and ignoring everything else, even if it’s correct, is just as sound and warranted as the rumor about Tony’s whore girlfriend (who was actually out sick that day with strep throat).
Click to expand...
But we all know how that filthy whore ended up with strep throat to begin with…
In all seriousness, I would doubt that they only look for keywords and ignore the rest of the context. It seems much too unlikely.
 
I would say if you fail to score more than 70% in majority of the afternoon session, the probability of failure increases. Some candidates can perform poorly in the AM exam but ended up passing, while candidates who perform poorly in PM ended up failing. (Not the case in my 2014 Exam). I would say Morning exam is not end of the paper. Some candidates attempt to pass even if they leave one or two questions blank (10-20 marks) score around 55% in AM but you need to score 75-80% in PM to clear the hurdle.
 
#70ISNTenoughinPM
#AMscoreWORSEthanUthink #youllSEE
#betterlucknextyear
 
Rogue Trader wrote:I would say if you fail to score more than 70% in majority of the afternoon session, the probability of failure increases.
Click to expand...
While true, this isn’t particularly insightful: as your average score declines, your probability of failure increases.
I suspect that you meant more than merely that.
 
Troll so hard motherlovers wanna fine me.
There are 360 points to the test. You get about 240 you should be home free. For some people it’s easier to score morning points, for the vast majority of people it’s easy to score afternoon points. Since, this is the case you see weights shifted to better performance in the afternoon.
 
I fully agree that the AM was harder to score. However, I calculated past exam results (2012, 2013, and 2014) and figured out that there were people scoring low in PM and other scoring low in AM… Both passed the exam. What we need to bear in mind is that starting with gaps in AM (e.g. not answering qs), increases the failure probability. Therefore if a lot of people didn’t manage to answer all questions on the AM, this would already increase the number of people with lower scores…
 
I am pretty sure I didn’t do all that great in the PM so hoping the AM will carry me through. In the PM, I misread two questions (realized this after replaying later in my head), didn’t know the answer to 3 and guessed wrong on all, and believe I missed at least half of the first two vingettes so have missed at least 11.
Based on the analysis of the scores last year and the year prior that have been posted, it shows you likely need an average of around 66 (if you got a 60 in the AM, the posted plots suggest you would need a 64 or so in the PM, but I believe the 40/60/80 understates the PM scores by about 8 points so that really means a 72 in the PM for a total of 132 between the AM and PM).
So I am thinking if I did get a 60 in the AM (I felt really good about it so hopefully that is realistic), then I can only have missed 5 more than the 11 I noted above in the PM to squeak by. I am giving myself a 50% chance of that being the case.
 
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