Income return in Grinold-Kroner model

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Made a mistake in a mock review that’s been bugging me because I made the same mistake 2 months ago…
The income return = div yield + repurchase yield
Is it safe to say that we should add whatever value of the repurchase yield is given?
E.g: if the repurchase yield is -2%, div yield is 3%, then the income yield is 1%.
If the repurchase yield is 2%, div yield is 3%, then income yield is 5%.
 
The other way around. Negative repurchase yield increases income return, v.v.
 
Equity compounded annual growth rate (%) 11.2
Equity risk premium (%) 5.3
Dividend yield (%) 4.0
Equity repurchase yield (%) –0.5
Nominal earnings growth return (%) 4.6
Current and Forward Looking Data
Current equity price-to-earnings ratio 14.6
Expected equities real earnings growth rate (%) 2.7
Expected long-term inflation rate (%) 2.5
Solution:
Income return is the sum of the dividend yield (i.e., D/P, which is 4.0%) and the equity
repurchase yield (i.e., the negative of the expected change in shares outstanding, - ΔS)
which is -0.5%. Therefore:
Income return = D/P - ΔS = 4.0 - 0.5 = 3.5%
 
Epsilon wrote:
The other way around. Negative repurchase yield increases income return, v.v.
Click to expand...
that is incorrect. Negative repurchase yield is more shares issued.
 
Yea Epsilon that’s the same mistake I made. Go correct your notes like I did v.v
 
125mph wrote:
Epsilon wrote:
The other way around. Negative repurchase yield increases income return, v.v.
Click to expand...
that is incorrect. Negative repurchase yield is more shares issued.
Click to expand...
The way i understand it is the formula for the change is:
End - Beg / Beg; so a negative means more repurchases thus increases income return.
Which part is incorrect?
 
125mph wrote:
Epsilon wrote:
The other way around. Negative repurchase yield increases income return, v.v.
Click to expand...
that is incorrect. Negative repurchase yield is more shares issued.
Click to expand...
If the company BUYS back shares it will lower the required return on the stock (hence the negative value for this coefficient in the model). If they ISSUE more shares then the investor will require a higher return on the stock.
just remember that two negatives make a positive.
 
^ that’s also wrong.
If they issue more shares –> repurchase yield negative –> dilution –> lower expected return. Grinold-Kroner is a expected return model, not required return model.
In the exam they’ll either give us the repurchase yield (easy because they’ll give the sign, just add it to the equation), or the %change in shares. If the %change in shares is negative (say -3%), then we add 3%. if the %change is positive (3%), we subtract 3%.
 
CEO10K-DAY wrote:
125mph wrote:
Epsilon wrote:
The other way around. Negative repurchase yield increases income return, v.v.
Click to expand...
that is incorrect. Negative repurchase yield is more shares issued.
Click to expand...
If the company BUYS back shares it will lower the required return on the stock (hence the negative value for this coefficient in the model). If they ISSUE more shares then the investor will require a higher return on the stock.
just remember that two negatives make a positive.
Click to expand...
Nah, a buyback increases return and issuing shares decreases return. U got it backwards ;)
 
Tactics wrote:
^ that’s also wrong.
If they issue more shares –> repurchase yield negative –> dilution –> lower expected return. Grinold-Kroner is a expected return model, not required return model.
In the exam they’ll either give us the repurchase yield (easy because they’ll give the sign, just add it to the equation), or the %change in shares. If the %change in shares is negative (say -3%), then we add 3%. if the %change is positive (3%), we subtract 3%.
Click to expand...
exactly. A simple equation, Grinold-Kroner, can actually be very tricky and half the takers will lose poimts
 
125mph wrote:
CEO10K-DAY wrote:
125mph wrote:
Epsilon wrote:
The other way around. Negative repurchase yield increases income return, v.v.
Click to expand...
that is incorrect. Negative repurchase yield is more shares issued.
Click to expand...
If the company BUYS back shares it will lower the required return on the stock (hence the negative value for this coefficient in the model). If they ISSUE more shares then the investor will require a higher return on the stock.
just remember that two negatives make a positive.
Click to expand...
Nah, a buyback increases return and issuing shares decreases return. U got it backwards ;)
Click to expand...
Agree that a buyback increases return and it implies a negative change in the outstanding shares (ending < beginning). Is it not?
 
Epsilon wrote:
Agree that a buyback increases return and it implies a negative change in the outstanding shares (ending < beginning). Is it not?
Click to expand...
you r correct. when they give positive repurchase yield, they r giving you a negative change in shares outstanding
 
125mph wrote:
Epsilon wrote:
Agree that a buyback increases return and it implies a negative change in the outstanding shares (ending < beginning). Is it not?
Click to expand...
you r correct. when they give positive repurchase yield, they r giving you a negative change in shares outstanding
Click to expand...
Got it. I misconstrued repurchase yield and change in outstanding shares. Thanks
 
Even though this thing is pretty much take care of, you could apply a bit of corporate finance here to understand better. If % of shares outstanding next year is gonna fall by say 2%, it means there is buyback which is similar to a dividend and adds value fo investors. In turn leading to a higher return for investors. If shares outstanding increase, the company duping its overvalued shares on to investors and would not add much value and hence lower returns.
 
I’m too tired to understand the above thread. Could we summarize it in the simplest way?
positive repurchase yield = repurchase ==> less shares ==> more expected return
negative repurchase yield = issuance ==> more shares ==> less expected return
Is this OK?
 
Yes, but don’t get mixed up when you see the formula, which is: Dividend Yield - share repurchase yield
So when you say positive repurchase yield, yes this does increase the return (and added to the dividend yield) but if you simply plug in the number into the equation above you’ll be subtracting the repurchase yield from the dividend yield.
So it comes down to how they phrase the question: “Reduction in shares outstanding = 4%” is the same thing as saying “repurchase yield = 4%”.
Bottom line: When # of shares is decreasing or the repurchase yield is positive you add this number to the dividend yield. Vice versa for increasing number of shares.
 
Positive change in shares = dilution = Negative repurchase yield
Negative change in shares = repurchases = positive repurchase yield
That is all.
 
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