Destroyer of Worlds wrote:
bchad wrote:
An interesting point is that monkeys throwing darts at a board should outperform something like the S&P 500 on average.
Why? Because their sample will be biased towards small-cap stocks (the S&P 500 has about 75% of the US market capitalization, but only 500 stocks, compared to the 1000s of stocks in the R1k, R3k, Wilshire 5000, etc), and the small cap universe tends to deliver higher returns on average.
So it may not be too hard to beat the market over the long term by a little, but it does seem to be pretty hard to beat it by a lot. One of the challenges is to figure out how much of the performance difference comes from buying high-beta stocks in an up market, versus finding stuff that outperforms an equivalently-levered index.
I like this idea a lot. Set up a mutual fund, benchmark it to the S&P500, implement a small-cap bias, slightly outperform the S&P 500 for 3 years until you have established that arbitrary track record for other monkeys, er, consultants and fund selectors, and then sit back and watch the mandates roll in. After all, nobody really expects any excess return from domestic large cap stocks in the long run, do they? Small sustainable excess returns in LCD equity land is something special. Of course, do not shine any special light on the small cap bias to any consultants reviewing your fund.