JOE (St. Joe) short story

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anyone following this drama? Whitney Tilson did an amazing presentation at the most recent Value Investing Congress….my money’s on him. Would love to hear anyone’s thoughts.
 
Sweep the Leg Wrote:
——————————————————-
> I still like Berkowitz, but so far he’s been way
> off.
I’m with you. I generally can follow what Berkowitz is doing once he discloses a position, but after hearing Einhorn’s thesis start-to-finish, I am not quite sure what angle Berkowitz sees that the rest of us don’t.
 
supersadface Wrote:
——————————————————-
> Sweep the Leg Wrote:
> ————————————————–
> —–
> > I still like Berkowitz, but so far he’s been
> way
> > off.
>
>
> I’m with you. I generally can follow what
> Berkowitz is doing once he discloses a position,
> but after hearing Einhorn’s thesis
> start-to-finish, I am not quite sure what angle
> Berkowitz sees that the rest of us don’t.
He lives in FL so he thinks he knows the land better. Good chance he does I suppose, but it still might takes years for it to appreciate.
 
…it’s kind of funny to see these guys argue so adamantly over a set of pictures (I know, just part of the argument).
 
google whitney tilson presentation on st. joe
and einhorn’s
and bruce’s for the other side
 
There was an article from II about Berkowitz and his partner regarding his thoughts on JOE. They’re still believers of the air port -> massive traffic -> increased infrastructure build -> increased demand for land -> PROFIT!
There was also speculation that Berkowitz is doing something similar to what Warren Buffett did 40 yrs ago. Supposedly he’s tired of investing in only public equities through Fairholme, and by seizing 30+% of JOE and a couple of board seats, Berkowitz can dictate JOE to conduct other investment deals not available to mutual funds.
If this is the case and you think Berkowitz is similar to Buffett, I wouldn’t be surprised if JOE becomes the future Berkshire Hathaway type holdings company.
 
I am on Tilson’s emailing list and he sends out a ton of information on St. Joe. Einhorns presentation and Tilsons presentation are very compelling. It seems that St. Joe is being very reluctant to write down values of their properties, and this is the thesis of their short position. Berkowitz is betting on the future of Florida real estate and seems like his view is very long term (10-20 years).
 
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