Manning the Barricades

Its a bit late though. The crisis seems over. AT least for now. I am being serious. I think that we may have seen the worst already.
 
It’s very hard for me to stop thinking that this is a bear market rally. I just don’t see the fundamentals improving fast enough to justify rises this fast.
It is true that if banks start lending again, that should be good.
Definitely inflation is on the way. If the toxic assets are truly worthless, then the only way to regain control over the money supply is to inflate it so that the “gap” of assets that the Fed purchased is tiny relative to the monetary base (Spierce may have a better - or different - view on this). And once lending starts, we still have to figure out how to get the national debt level back down to manageable sizes. All I can see is inflation as a policy tool to achieve this.
If one’s employed, or owns assets, I guess that’s not so bad, but we’re going to have a lot of retirees on fixed incomes (many with adjustable mortgages). Poor grandma.
 
bchadwick Wrote:
——————————————————-
> It’s very hard for me to stop thinking that this
> is a bear market rally. I just don’t see the
> fundamentals improving fast enough to justify
> rises this fast.
>
> It is true that if banks start lending again, that
> should be good.
I am not saying that this is fundamentally a sound rally but at least the markets bounced back and still react to news. just a few weeks ago it seemed that they were not responding to any news and just nose diving.
 
Yes, I agree with you on that. I covered my shorts because I noticed that the news had stopped being all bad, all the time, and there was a little positive action. I am trying to prepare myself to short again, though…
 
I’m going to go see Harry Markowitz tomorrow. Hopefully, he’ll give me the answer. I have some deep and probing questions for him.
 
I don’t see how this toxic asset purchase plan is going to actually work.
Private investors will not buy these assets unless they are offered an attractive discount.
Banks will not want to sell at deep discounts and realize losses.
Actually if banks sell below the current book value, then equity is going to take a big hit.
But come Q1 reports, they will have to mark down their assets again, either way they will have to record more losses
 
I think one thing they’re doing is allocating resources to figuring out what the assets actually are. That’s mildly positive in my book.
 
There is a cynical side of me that says that the market is being set up. players are creating this bear market rally to entice people to get back in before they short and exit.
I am curious whether it is ok from a legal point of view to make statements like I did. Could I be charged for something I wrote on a finance forum?
 
I know a financial planner that spoke before congress. Some senator brought up something he wrote on a blog many years before. He was using his real name on the blog though.
 
I think there needs to be more evidence of short&distort or pump&dump before you are legally liable.
The way out is disclosure… say that you are or are not planning on doing it, or even just considering it.
Also separating opinion from fact is helpful to protect you from liability.
I think part of the issue is that people were just so depressed about things, that you get a little good news and people start jump in.
 
mwvt9 Wrote:
——————————————————-
> I know a financial planner that spoke before
> congress. Some senator brought up something he
> wrote on a blog many years before. He was using
> his real name on the blog though.
needhelp is my real name.
 
Thanks Matt, I’m gonna read this badboy after work. The run against the dollar scenario is the one I keep monitoring.
 
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