Greetings Fellow Analysts.
Ok, so this is the topic everyone loves to hate. Fine.
Can’t resist a couple of thoughts here though…
1. As people who have taken hundreds of tests in our lives, don’t we leave the exam room with an accurate sense of how we did?
2. If # 1 is correct and personal intuition is accurate (and why wouldn’t it be since we’re seasoned exam takers), the only wildcard with CFA Level III (and the other levels for that matter) is the MPS.
3. For me, I know full well how I did - my % correct will have a 6-handle on it, 99.9% confi interval .
4. The MPS will fall somewhere btw 61 and 69 with 100% confidence, right?
5. If it’s 61, I will never take another certified exam for the rest of my life. As the MPS moves up from 61, it becomes increasingly likely that my 2015 Memorial Day will be spent like the last three - it will suck. If the MPS falls at the upper end of my estimated range (69), there is a near 100% chance I will spend the first Saturday in Jun of next year in a test center.
What am I missing here?
Further, I suggest (and welcome comments from a society of folks, most of whom are smarter than me) that the distribution of Level III scores would be HIDEOUS if charted! This distribution will be extremely highly peaked with outliers at both ends (leptokirtic by definition ) and slightly right-skewed for those rare and annoying people who score in the 90s.
I contend that the Level III scores are so tightly concentrated that a full 80% of us will score +- 4 % points of the MPS! So, assuming a MPS of 65, only 20% of the test takers will score below a 65 or above a 69. I know, 80% is a bold call. Again, tell me where I’m wrong.
Welcome thoughts from my fellow analysts!
Ok, so this is the topic everyone loves to hate. Fine.
Can’t resist a couple of thoughts here though…
1. As people who have taken hundreds of tests in our lives, don’t we leave the exam room with an accurate sense of how we did?
2. If # 1 is correct and personal intuition is accurate (and why wouldn’t it be since we’re seasoned exam takers), the only wildcard with CFA Level III (and the other levels for that matter) is the MPS.
3. For me, I know full well how I did - my % correct will have a 6-handle on it, 99.9% confi interval .
4. The MPS will fall somewhere btw 61 and 69 with 100% confidence, right?
5. If it’s 61, I will never take another certified exam for the rest of my life. As the MPS moves up from 61, it becomes increasingly likely that my 2015 Memorial Day will be spent like the last three - it will suck. If the MPS falls at the upper end of my estimated range (69), there is a near 100% chance I will spend the first Saturday in Jun of next year in a test center.
What am I missing here?
Further, I suggest (and welcome comments from a society of folks, most of whom are smarter than me) that the distribution of Level III scores would be HIDEOUS if charted! This distribution will be extremely highly peaked with outliers at both ends (leptokirtic by definition ) and slightly right-skewed for those rare and annoying people who score in the 90s.
I contend that the Level III scores are so tightly concentrated that a full 80% of us will score +- 4 % points of the MPS! So, assuming a MPS of 65, only 20% of the test takers will score below a 65 or above a 69. I know, 80% is a bold call. Again, tell me where I’m wrong.
Welcome thoughts from my fellow analysts!