MPS

Well that is how I thought I did. I had a serious time issue in the AM.
 
60% is my guess. I had the 5050/5151 form. (108/180)
 
I always speculated that the MPS would usually be between 63-68%. 66% I’d guess, for this year.
 
Looking at the CFA L2 2011 scores posted on this site that barely failed, its possible to extract some useful info on the MPS, and I get a number close to 59%. I came to this conclusion based on a few assumptons/observations:
1) The pass/fail divide will be decided based on your total score out of 120 questions, and the section scores are only meant to highlight your strength weaknesses.
2) Distribution of grades in each section is different, and a >70% can be attained differently probably with a lower % score in Derivatives, than say in Equity. FRA also has lower mean score to attain 70+% relative to Equity which is an easier section.
Fitting the reported Level 8, 9, 10 fail grades with some assumptions , eg 40,60,80% for a <50,50-70,70+ for Corporate finance say, 25%,45%,65% for Derivatives etc… (not exactly those but you need to tweak to get the order of candidate scores to fit being a Level10 versus level 9 Fail!!, Then 2011 MPS came to about 58-60%
If 2012 was harder, then dont expect MPS to be over 60%!! The math just doesnt work out.
 
my math gave 66.7% (but i looked for ridiculous passes) - based on 25 observations
band 10 gave 64.8%
band 9 - 62.2%
10 and 9 based only on 5 observations each
considered “worst case” scenario for us - 42% - 65% - 80%
my guess is 67%, ethics adjustment within +1/-2 questions
 
I did some private work based on the areas tested this year and the difficulty of the exam when compared to last year. Also i took into account my Band last year and prediction of last year MPS based on bands.
My prediction is
a range of 63% to 67% with 64% being the best guesstimate imho.
 
rob123 wrote:
Looking at the CFA L2 2011 scores posted on this site that barely failed, its possible to extract some useful info on the MPS, and I get a number close to 59%. I came to this conclusion based on a few assumptons/observations:
1) The pass/fail divide will be decided based on your total score out of 120 questions, and the section scores are only meant to highlight your strength weaknesses.
2) Distribution of grades in each section is different, and a >70% can be attained differently probably with a lower % score in Derivatives, than say in Equity. FRA also has lower mean score to attain 70+% relative to Equity which is an easier section.
Fitting the reported Level 8, 9, 10 fail grades with some assumptions , eg 40,60,80% for a <50,50-70,70+ for Corporate finance say, 25%,45%,65% for Derivatives etc… (not exactly those but you need to tweak to get the order of candidate scores to fit being a Level10 versus level 9 Fail!!, Then 2011 MPS came to about 58-60%
If 2012 was harder, then dont expect MPS to be over 60%!! The math just doesnt work out.
Click to expand...
60% is TOO low… IMO much more than 40% of students will be able to pass with MPS 60%
 
Seems like you are applying your scenarios (42,65,80) uniformly to each of the sections. My point was that it doesnt have to be the case, and I found cases where just using the same ratios, then a band 8 scored about the same as band 10!!
 
yeah i know what you mean, i dont want PHD in predicting MPS though
 
It is what they say it is!
Actually I think people saying 70 are being too pessimistic. According to some stuff I’ve read on a few CFA Society websites, nobody that has ever scored 70 or more has EVER failed a Level II exam. So I’m guessing 70 is the absolute max the MPS could be, but is probably always lower than that. Unless somebody can prove me wrong on this.
 
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