My Confidence Level; and is Blinxbuckles a retaker, genius or naive?

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Audacious

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Apart of the leaks and error messages,
I’ve never been 100% confident of passing. The week before the exam, I had command of 95% of the material. I willingly didn’t want to waste a lot of time on the remaining 5%. On the exam, apart of Ethics and 3 multiple choice questions of one itemset, I can solve all the remaining questions with relative ease. So where does my lack of confidence come from?
- Ethics, in many questions, I knew arguments from the books that support 2 out of the 3 answers. They are the sort of questions that are written by lawyers to keep things open for interpretation. I remember one of those questions, it goes like this: what is a dark sugared drink? A. Coke, B. Pepsi, C. Treated water
- I finished AM ahead of time. During my review, I encountered a note that I totally missed. The note made my answer irrelevant. So I quickly changed the answer. I wonder what I have missed else.
- after the exam, I realized that one word in an AM question reversed the question’s structure. The structure itself had a small trick. I didn’t think that 2 layers of tricks are possible. I dunno how many of such questions I missed.
- in one question in PM, I was a bit confused at the start. Was going to solve it in a certain approach, but suddenly I realized how simple the question was. It just needed a bit of lateral thinking. I thought this was the only question like this. What if am wrong and there are others that I solved under different assumptions?
NOW, Blinxbuckles seems too confident that he passed. There were many in the past that foolishly thought they passed but didn’t. But Blinxbuckles is different cause he seemed to know the subjects very well. His posts were smart and most of the time correct. But to be that confident, he’s either:
- a retaker.
- a genius of IQ above 210; or
- too young and naive
He’s very likely to pass, but his confidence is odd.
What was your command of the subjects, and how’s your confidence?
 
As you suggested you knew 95% of the curriculum….
Let’s take out another 5% for ethics, another 5% for AM (even if one knows everything, they won’t score 100%). That leaves 85% on the table…
To pass you need 65% (ish), thats roughly 3/4 of 85%. So unless you made mistakes like the ones you mentioned more than 1 out of 4 occasions, yes it can be touch and go.
Else you should and will pass.
And not to forget that for 15% i left out of the equation, you would still get something from it.
At level 3 i learned (may be a bit too late) that perfection is very costly. I kept leaving ethics, gips, behavioral stuff until very late to focus on interesting stuff such as fixed income, portfolio management, derivatives etc.
Truth is doesnt matter how one clears the exam - elegantly or through heavy scoring in theoretical areas - what matter is first word of the result email (congratulations or we regret).
Good luck.
 
I was feeling confident in the build up - marking myself ~70% in CFAI AM past exams and getting 75-80% in CFAI PM past exams. This was the case for the past 3-4 years exams so I thought that I would be fine if the AM style remained similar … but it didn’t (not in my view anyway).
Certain questions/answers weren’t as clear cut as previous years - for example in past exams when you had to decide whether someone had above or below average risk tolerance, 3 or 4 bits of information supported one answer and 1 supported the other whereas for this year’s exam, I felt that the vignette was much more 50/50 in terms of which answer was the “right” one - and this makes me very nervous because if I chose wrong each time then that could potentially be 15-20% of the exam lost even though my supporting arguments might be valid = FAIL!
I felt that for the itemsets in the PM (except ethics and maybe one other) I was sure of 5 answers and 50/50 on the last, so am confident that I’ll get 75% or above, however it’s the AM where the issue will lie!
My broad guess is 52-60% in AM and 72-80% in the PM - I really hope that’s enough!
 
I’m a re-taker who made the typical mistake of underrating the AM beast in my first attempt. Hadn’t practiced a single AM mock, even though was pretty familiar with the content, and got taken down by the monster.
This time, I did around 10 AM mocks apart from becoming familiar with the material.
The AM was a great interesting ride as expected and apart from not completing a question worth 10 points, I felt I did justice. Felt the PM was relatively easy, finished it with 45 mins to spare. Ethics ofcourse had all the options shouting ‘Choose me, Choose me!’
Me too not too 100% confident. But I think I enjoyed the ride which I think should convert to a good result too!
 
I’m a retaker, this was my second attempt. Felt very confident in the PM and I don’t think I blew the AM so hoping for the best. Finished the PM with time to spare for review and tackling some of the more time consuming Qs and finished the entire AM paper, barely on time but finished it.
If you asked me after the exam I would say I passed and would be shocked if I failed. But I gotta tell ya’, being only days from Aug 11th my confidence ain’t as high. Tough not to be anxious about the results when you worked your ass of for 5 months and that results email is right down the corner.
 
I’m also a retaker, and last year I got the dreaded band 10. In comparison to last year, I was better prepared - did loads of mock and old exams both AM/PM format - and also felt more confident during and after the exam. A good sign is that I didn’t have a single instance in the AM or PM section of “Damn, I remember I did this before, why can’t I remember it now? If I had the book in front of me I would solve it in seconds!” Therefore if my gut feeling is anywhere near correct, I should have passed. Fingers crossed.
And yes, my main worry is the same as everyone else’s. That either I missed an entire question or two in AM by failing to notice one crucial keyword in the reading, or that I screwed up the insane ethics questions so badly that I will get ethics adjusted all the way down to a fail.
 
I’m 50/50. First time taker. Had a good grasp on all the AM material but didn’t manage my time wisely so I honestly have not clue as to what my percent was on it…hopefully 60 but maybe that’s too optimistic.
Got off to a bad start on PM due to Ethics which I thought were beyond unfair and really just plan stupid. After Ethics though, settled in pretty nicely and think I did well on the PM overall.
If I pass, I wouldn’t be surprised, if I failed I wouldn’t be surprised…hence 50/50.
 
I feel almost identical to these posts. That is why I am so nervous. It sounds like we are all in the same boat so 50% of us will have gotten lucky and guessed right on the ethics, not made too many oversight errors, and pass and 50% of us will fall on the wrong side.
 
I took Level III my first time last June… I left two AM sub-sections blank (total: 8 marks) - one of them was one of the easiest questions in the exam; the other one was a calculation that I am sure I would have figured out - just didn’t have time for the two questions. Of course, there are questions I believe I didn’t structure their answers well - I am not sure of getting 70+ in the AM…
Unlike many folks here, PM killed me; perhaps the reason behind my struggle there is because I was getting 50-57 out of 60 in the CFA mocks starting 2010 to 2015. I thought I had this part of the exam and perhaps didnt focus much. Ethics killed me starting with Q1 (of which I am sure I got wrong), GIPS was the other part (I thought I had this one until I messed up getting two MCQs in that part wrong), the story of rebalancing crushed me too (not sure of two MCQs there)… I had 5/6 for each of the last two vignettes but I am confident of all the other exam sections (maybe 6/6 or 5/6)… Ethics is the determinant for me; I don’t know - I have been using 2/12 for ethics in the predictions of my performance. My PM can be in 35-45 maximum 46 out of 60…
All in all, I think I either pass narrowly or fail Bands 9/10… I hope this pans out well… ALL THE BEST GUYS; esp. RETAKERS, I know the courage it takes to gather yourself and press on when it gets dark…
 
in PM section, two questions I calculated again and again, just cannot match any one of the three choices, but these two questions should be easy cake, just don’t know why, so sad.
 
I was 100% sure I passed level 1 by applying myself, failed level 2 once and knew I failed before even getting my results because I didn’t work hard enough, and then I’d say I was 85% sure I passed level 2 the second time around after applying myself fully.
After level 3 and talking with my friends who took it with me I felt I did much better than them and that I was likely to pass, but sitting here not knowing is freaking me out. I’m down to 50/50 because I can’t remember specifics from the exam like anyone else here (Audacious your commentary on the AM section is freaking me out - I definitely don’t think like you do with these exams). I did (almost) everything I could to pass this exam, barring a full RE-review of ethics before the exam and did every AM exam under the sun (but IDK if I was just really harsh on my scoring or what it was because I barely broke 70 ever). I had absolutely no life for the months leading into the exam and couldn’t work any harder to pass, so not passing this time around will be pretty hard to overcome.
50/50, though my friends think I stand a better chance than that (I’ve got some reassuring friends).
 
I’ve been waiting for this moment for so long….the day my name appears in an AF topic for discussion…so let me take a stab at it
In June 2013, when i took L1, I was certain I passed…result….all sections >70%
In June 2014, when i took L2, I was certain I passed…result…9 sections >70%
In June 2015, when I took L3, I was certain I passed….In the AM I might have bombed the FI section because i totally missed a sub question and was not too sure about some of my answers….but I thought everything else went fine….the only thing that might screw it up is the fact that I write like a chicken and hence the graders might miss significant points I tried to make….if every grader misses my AM then I’ll fail and that’s where my 1% uncertainty comes from…In the PM section…ethics sucked and the individual portfolio management also sucked…so that’s 18 questions i might get no marks on…but i’m confident the other 42 questions were a breeze including GIPS which I can say i scored a 100% on
All in all I’m highly confident I’m getting a pass next tuesday and I have prepared my celebration plans…of course everything could go wrong and I’d be back here eating crow
But in an anonymous forum where nobody can really verify results….I wonder how much that matters???
so no i’m not a retaker, no I’m not young and naive (i hope 27 counts as not young and naive) and no i’m certainly not a genius…although it’s my one genie wish
 
blinxbuckles wrote:
I’ve been waiting for this moment for so long….the day my name appears in an AF topic for discussion…
…….
…….
so no i’m not a retaker, no I’m not young and naive (i hope 27 counts as not young and naive) and no i’m certainly not a genius…although it’s my one genie wish
Click to expand...
i can fulfill one wish only.
back to my lamp
 
Wishes are best things… Perceptions are good ones…. Reality is the worst….
perception could be someone’s reality…
Wish hope and live the real world or choose to live in here the place called analyst forum level III anxiety
 
Well I find solace here to see everyone finding Ethics to be tough. Agree GIPS was a sitter with 100%.
However, here at my office three of my colleagues did not found Ethics to be difficult. Hence, being in minority at office, had been a scaring moment for me over the last two months.
Anyways, I am not at all confident about my results. I realized few tricks which I missed after I came out of exam hall. If I pass I’ ll consider myself lucky but expecting to land between band 8-10.
 
Ethics I approached as usual - second guess the second guess and then re-guess with another guess. So start with A, consider B and then end up at C
The AM was hard but not impossible but, like you’re saying, I didn’t have enough time to fully consider all the possible angles which CFA tends to take or pretends are there when they aren’t. I spent a lot of time saying “is this what they’re really looking for?” We’ll see!
For the PM, I felt like I crushed the first half and had a difficult time on the back end. Not because I didn’t know the answers but because my mind was just drained. I think I recovered well at the end but i’m questioning a lot of my answers on the last 30 or so, maybe more so on the last 2 item sets.
EDIT: The last two item sets reminded me of level II quant - I was freaking out trying to recall the details but ended up with a >70% score in that section. Hoping for the same result!
50/50 for me, leaning towards fail which im suprised at the level of care I seem to have towards the results… Maybe I just don’t see the benefit of the charter anymore?
 
I want to echo blinx. I too am very confident and think it’s very petty of a handful of people on here who are certain that “if you are confident you likely didn’t do that well”. No I’m pretty sure that if I am confident I did relatively well thanks. Morning difficulty is overrated in my opinion. It strikes me as a session that is hard to crush but the partial credit caveat creates an opportunity for a floor if you know the material and can show that. The PM was easy - it wouldn’t shock me if outside of ethics I got almost a perfect PM score
 
marketstudent1 wrote:
Well I find solace here to see everyone finding Ethics to be tough. Agree GIPS was a sitter with 100%.
However, here at my office three of my colleagues did not found Ethics to be difficult. Hence, being in minority at office, had been a scaring moment for me over the last two months.
Anyways, I am not at all confident about my results. I realized few tricks which I missed after I came out of exam hall. If I pass I’ ll consider myself lucky but expecting to land between band 8-10.
Click to expand...
If anyone thinks that this year’s ethics questions were not difficult they are in for a surprise next Tues.
 
15percenthurdle wrote:
I want to echo blinx. I too am very confident and think it’s very petty of a handful of people on here who are certain that “if you are confident you likely didn’t do that well”. No I’m pretty sure that if I am confident I did relatively well thanks. Morning difficulty is overrated in my opinion. It strikes me as a session that is hard to crush but the partial credit caveat creates an opportunity for a floor if you know the material and can show that. The PM was easy - it wouldn’t shock me if outside of ethics I got almost a perfect PM score
Click to expand...
It’s true the AM session gives you a opportunity to build your floor… but just a floor ain’t enough; it depends on where your base your floor… base it on 60% and you are probably safe… anything below 55%; hell yeah, you need your ‘near’ perfect score in the PM sessions to pass the Level III exam…
 
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