jax26 Wrote:
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> 2x2 I think you are a bit confused as to the role
> of a trader at a big bank. so let me clarify some
> things for you from what i have seen at the places
> ive worked, this is from an interest rate
> derivative perspective. quants help develop and
> improve the pricing models, they take marching
> orders from what the desk wants to see in the
> model (curve construction issues, convexity
> adjustments to the swap curve, improvements in the
> pricing sheet, formatting to the way the desk head
> wants it etc). software developers work with the
> front office to improve & develop p&l/risk
> processes, they also work with middle office to
> improve controls in trade bookings, p&l breaks,
> etc. research writes their own strategy pieces,
> the desk reads them but certainly doesnt trade off
> of their recommendations. its just another point
> of view, as a matter of fact ive never seen a desk
> head read a research piece and say ‘hey lets do
> that trade’. it just doesnt happen that way.
>
> your prior post implies that these groups do all
> the work and the traders just use what they are
> told by research, plug it into a magical pricing
> model developed by quants and boom profits spit
> out which is far from the case. the reality is the
> job takes a lot of skill and has tons of pressure
> (in and out of the office). black swan is correct
> in that 1/2 will wash out due to pressure,
> mistakes and the like. its real money you are
> talking about and if you mishedge you are toast. 1
> basis point on 100mm 10 year swaps is 85k down the
> drain so what happens if someone puts through a
> billion dollar order and the market moves 5 bps
> before you blink an eye, which is happening almost
> every day in this market, you just lost over 4
> million bucks before you could even call the
> brokers to try and get a hedge
1) Way more than 50% end up failing. I would say it’s a lot closer to 95%.
2) there’s a reason some are analysts and others are traders. If all a trader had to do was follow what the analyst thought, the analyst would have become a trader a long time ago. Analysts are either often wrong or don’t have the right timing.