AF posters have been giving this guy a hard time for awhile now. His English sucks, but how are his predictions?
cinton Wrote:
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> Now is fries the Chinese dollar (RMB) rise value
> to be best time several!
"Fries"? But I think he predicts the Chinese dollar to rise in value. During this time the official exchange rate of the Chinese dollar has steadily gone from 8.28/$ to 7.927/$. This is about a 4.4% increase in Renminbi value in two years. However, the interest rate differential during that period has been at least 2% so the trade would have been about a wash or maybe a little losing.
> Because China Gov�t decided not to increase
> interest rate although USA rise the int.rate.
True, for awhile then not true as Chinese govt has raised interest rates several times recently.
> Now have massively to buy up the Chinese dollar
> (RMB), again buys the forward Chinese dollare
> (RMB) rise value.
> Then, you will earn money
See above. You wouldn't have lost much money, but the trade has been pretty dull.
>
> The American rise interest 0.25%,
> Next time, FOMC meeting on August 04, I believed
True.
> the USA Congress will rise interest 0.25% again,
True.
> The insufficient two months, totaled again added
> 0.5% int.rate
>
True.
> Because the Renminbi is with US dollar suspension
> hook,
> at the appointed time the Chinese government not
> possibly again not to rise the interest rate., the
> Chinese government interest on futures pressure
> can be very big
I think he means that eventually the Chinese govt will have to raise interest rates to maintain the peg. This was true, but pretty obvious, and they did it.
>
> Because the Chinese dollar (RMB) is with US dollar
> suspension hook,
> US dollar policy, the Chinese dollar (RMB) is
> certainly needs to follow,
>
Yep.
> Because the Chinese government official is the
> non- economic knowledge,
> therefore speech China certainly not to rise the
> interest rate, they really are extremely stupid,
No opinion about that. See what those guys did to Jack Bauer?
> only if the RMB different US dollar suspension
> hook, then China can not to rise the interest
> rate.
That happened too. China changed the peg a year later to a basket of currencies not the dollar.
>
> The RMB is with US dollar suspension hook, China
> not possibly does not follow the American interest
> on futures, the monetary policy is not at the
> China side.
Yep
>
> Yesterday (30 June 04) the Renminbi had the little
> rise
Yep.
Overall, this guy is doing better than lots of very slick Ivy League MBA-types. If you had followed his advice, you would have just made a boring trade that didn't lose much money but had some positive skew (i.e., there was no way the Renminbi would get completely punished short of a Chinese coup d'etat, but there were people suggesting it was 40% undervalued).
The "Terminator"-thing is pretty funny.