archived_user
New member
- Jun 18, 2026
- 0
- 0
This is from the CFAI Text. I don’t understand how the answer was reached. Any insight would be appreciated.
An exchange rate has a given expected future value and standard deviation.
A. Assuming that the exchange rate is normally distributed, what are the probabilities that the exchange rate will be at least 1, 2, or 3 standard deviations away from its mean.
B. Assume that you do not know the distribution of exchange rates. Use Chebsyshev’s inequality (that at least 1 – 1/k2 proportions of the observations will be within k standard deviations of the mean for any positive integer greater than 1) to calculate the maximum probability that the exchange rate will be at least 1, 2, or 3 standard deviations away from its mean.
Answers:
A:
• P(|X - µ| >= 1ó) = 0.3174
• P(|X - µ| >= 2ó) = 0.0456
• P(|X - µ| >= 3ó) = 0.0026
B:
• P(|X - µ| >= 1ó) <= (1/1)^2 = 1
• P(|X - µ| >= 2ó) <= (1/2)^2 = 0.25
• P(|X - µ| >= 3ó) <= (1/3)^3 = 0.1111
An exchange rate has a given expected future value and standard deviation.
A. Assuming that the exchange rate is normally distributed, what are the probabilities that the exchange rate will be at least 1, 2, or 3 standard deviations away from its mean.
B. Assume that you do not know the distribution of exchange rates. Use Chebsyshev’s inequality (that at least 1 – 1/k2 proportions of the observations will be within k standard deviations of the mean for any positive integer greater than 1) to calculate the maximum probability that the exchange rate will be at least 1, 2, or 3 standard deviations away from its mean.
Answers:
A:
• P(|X - µ| >= 1ó) = 0.3174
• P(|X - µ| >= 2ó) = 0.0456
• P(|X - µ| >= 3ó) = 0.0026
B:
• P(|X - µ| >= 1ó) <= (1/1)^2 = 1
• P(|X - µ| >= 2ó) <= (1/2)^2 = 0.25
• P(|X - µ| >= 3ó) <= (1/3)^3 = 0.1111