Questions about weekly unemployment numbers

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Picco

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Like today, the report came out ~600,000 initial claims were made for previous week. Does that mean, on an annualized basis, ~32 million jobs will be lost at this pace? Sounds waaay too excessive innit?
 
Adding on to the above question, how does the continuing jobless claims relate to the monthly nonfarm-payroll unemployment report?
 
Picco Wrote:
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> Adding on to the above question, how does the
> continuing jobless claims relate to the monthly
> nonfarm-payroll unemployment report?


Continuing claims: 6.82 million
# of unemployed from May's NFP:14.5 million.

Anyone cares to comment?
 
I think your boss will wait for this summary from you for a while.
 
Regardless of who the information is for, wouldn't you agree the questions are rather thought-provoking?

Yes, the initial question is prompted by my supervisor, but it perked up my interest as to how the numbers stack up.
 
There might be 600,000 newly unemployed this week but there also might be 500,000 newly employed this week. So the cumulative unemployed number is usually alot less.
 
Also look into their silly birth death model to account for the jobs that are lost when business go out of business, as they must model these because the businesses no longer fill out their silly survey. It generally assumes all those employees that lose their jobs when the business goes under, find new jobs immediately as a new business is born. Greatly underestimating jobless claims.
 
The birth/dealth model has nothing to do with the weekly jobless claims number. The weekly number is the actual number of people who file for unemployment and is reported by the Department of Labor.

The birth/death model is a part of the analysis that goes into the monthly net change in nonfarm payrolls report, more commonly referred to as the employment report or jobs report. This is produced by an entirely different agency, the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

So, as macrie said above, there are those who find employment who offset those who are filing initial jobless claims. In May, for example, the average weekly jobless claims were about 630,000, yet for the month as a whole the economy shed roughly 345,000 jobs.
 
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