RA 11: Probability of Survival Calculation

tyler4040

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I know this is one of those things I should just memorize and move along but I’m curious why the joint probability of survival for a couple is being calculated as the difference between the sum of the individual probabilities of survial for each spouse less the product of the individual probabilities of survival for each spouse.
Pjoint survival= (Phusband + Pwife) - (Phusband * Pwife)
Shouldn’t it just be Phusband*Pwife; since it is a joint probability of mutually exclusive events? Is it perhaps just a more conservative approach to approximating joint survival?
I was never the best statstistics student, but this one has me puzzled.
 
either husband survives or wife survives
which is husband survives + wife surives - both survive
 
cpk123 wrote:either husband survives or wife survives
which is husband survives + wife surives - both survive
More explicitly:
Either husband survives or wife survives or both survive
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(AB)
Level I junk.
 
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