"Real" CFA pass rate

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Greenman72

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Pass rates for last year-s tests were 38%, 42%, and 52%. If you do the math, that’s an 8.3% pass rate. (A little oversimplified, because you can’t take all three tests in the same year. Nonetheless….) That means that out of 12 people, only one will ever finish the program.
However, these numbers only count the people who took the test and didn’t pass. This doesn’t count all the people who didn’t show up for the test. Nor does it count the people who passed a level, then never bothered to register for the next level. (I.E. passed Level 1, but never took Level 2, for whatever reason.)
That being said, does anybody have any idea what the “real” pass rate of the CFA exam is? Is it one in 20? One in 30?
 
I believe official stats are 1 in 4, or 1 in 5 will complete it
 
I think the math says otherwise. .38 x .42 x .52 = .083. 1/.083 = 12. That’s why I said 1 out of 12.
If my math is wrong, let me know, but 1 out of 5 sounds really optimistic.
 
“From 1963-2012 950,221 candidates have sat for the Level I exam, with 152,035 candidates ultimately going on to pass the Level III exam, representing a weighted average completion rate of 16%. From 2003-2012, the completion rate was 14%.[9] Completion rates may be skewed lower due to candidates’ voluntarily dropping out of the CFA program and recent candidates that have yet to sit for the Level III exam.” - Wikipedia (source listed as the CFAI)
Here’s how to interpret your calculation: If 100 people sat for the exam only 38 will pass. The 62 who failed do not try again. Then those 38 go on to take L2 and only 16 will pass. The 22 who failed do not try again. From those 16 who sit for L3, only 8 will pass. The 8 who failed do not try again. The pass rate you calculated assumes that if you were among those to fail at a certain level you do not try again, so yours is actually skewed downard.
But yea, the CFAI figure still excludes voluntary drop-outs that fit your description.
 
Greenman72 wrote:
I think the math says otherwise. .38 x .42 x .52 = .083. 1/.083 = 12. That’s why I said 1 out of 12.
If my math is wrong, let me know, but 1 out of 5 sounds really optimistic.
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You’re assuming those that fail never re-take and pass. Thats why the actual completetion rate is about 20%. If it wre 1 strike and you’re out, then you’d be right, but its not.
 
Don’t forget that many who fail L2 and L3 have already failed a prior level. I’m sure the rate of first time passers at every level is higher than 8%.
 
When I look at these figures, I just think that it should be worth more to pass all 3 Levels. If 80 % who sign up never complete the program, it actually says that it is pretty harder than people actually think when they sign up. Pass rate for a Master or MBA program is like everyone who wants to pass.
All 3 Levels on first attempt… hm, maybe 5 % of those who sign up. It would be pretty interesting to see CFAI release that number.
 
I would just like to see what the pass rate for the first attempt versus repeat attempts is at each level. If 80% of the ~40% who pass a particular level are on their second or third attempt, it would definitely impact the decision process of whether or not to start the program.
 
I’d think drop-out rates are much higher at L1 and lowest at L3.. why drop out when you’ve invested a ton of time and made some progress?
 
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