Can’t believe none of you mentioned how OP could evaluate the best outcome.
Possible actions:
1. Study full-time (12 hr/day): 50% chance of losing your principal i.e. failing L3 (worth $-10,000 in emotional cost); 50% of passing and feeling good about yourself (worth +ve $1000, say) or bad because it doesn’t help you further in career or job search (-$1000). Net NPV -$5000.
2. Study 2-3 hours, play with kids 2-3 hours, half-time job search: 1/6 less negative NPV of study + very high NPV from playing with kids [*] + half the NPV of jobsearch (0), clearly the winner
3. Job search full time: 99% chance of rejection (say worth -$10,000) vs 1% chance of succes with an annuity-like lottery payoff = worth $100,000 (easy to get base salary) / 10% discount rate for perpetuity = $1M (what the job is worth over your lifetime) * 1% chance of getting it = $10,000; so net 0 NPV.
[*] The time value of time with kids, while high per hour, declines with their age - as years go by, it’s less important that you play with them as they develop their own interests and friends and life; so using TVM calculations with a negative discount rate, the NPV should be quite high.
Possible actions:
1. Study full-time (12 hr/day): 50% chance of losing your principal i.e. failing L3 (worth $-10,000 in emotional cost); 50% of passing and feeling good about yourself (worth +ve $1000, say) or bad because it doesn’t help you further in career or job search (-$1000). Net NPV -$5000.
2. Study 2-3 hours, play with kids 2-3 hours, half-time job search: 1/6 less negative NPV of study + very high NPV from playing with kids [*] + half the NPV of jobsearch (0), clearly the winner
3. Job search full time: 99% chance of rejection (say worth -$10,000) vs 1% chance of succes with an annuity-like lottery payoff = worth $100,000 (easy to get base salary) / 10% discount rate for perpetuity = $1M (what the job is worth over your lifetime) * 1% chance of getting it = $10,000; so net 0 NPV.
[*] The time value of time with kids, while high per hour, declines with their age - as years go by, it’s less important that you play with them as they develop their own interests and friends and life; so using TVM calculations with a negative discount rate, the NPV should be quite high.
Will have an interview next week. Got one last week but the hiring manager thought I was over-qualified for that junior position and he didn’t believe I would stay in that position for more than three months. I should have removed the CFA part from my resume. He was right though, as I thought that one was a half decent job, which was better than nothing. But I still felt pissed as he was so blunt about it (he literally said it was the CFA thing that disqualified me!!!) So be aware, only mention CFA on your resume when the job posting requires a CFA. Good luck to all of you. I am going to read to my daughter