So really we only have to get 50% right?

C

cipherap15

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If we know we get 1 out of 2 correct, that means we have 60 out of 120. with 60 guesses we should get 20 on top of that. Final score 80-120.
And a pass. This exam is easy. One of two baby.
 
I’m just lightening the mood. I’m an actuarial fellow and have a good track record of passing. With that said, this one I’ll have to be on top of my game to pass. Not as prepared as I have been in the past for my other papers. Some of it not being as motivated knowing I’ve already passed my actuarial exams.
 
I’m telling you. A bunch of people are going to read this and feel much more relaxed. Thats the key. Big part is feeling relaxed and confident.
And honestly. The stat is true. You guys can do it.
 
cipherap15 wrote:
If we know we get 1 out of 2 correct, that means we have 60 out of 120. with 60 guesses we should get 20 on top of that. Final score 80-120.
And a pass. This exam is easy. One of two baby.
Click to expand...

I believe the logic is correct.
If you answered the first 60 questions 100% correctly, you could guess randomly at the following 60 and expect to pass.
The hard part is answering 60 questions 100% correctly.
 
Everyone in here is so quick to forget their quant!
Sure you may expect to get 1/3 of those questions right, if you truly randomly guess. But will you really get 1/3 of those questions right?
Without knowing the underlying population and its distribution characteristics, there is no way to tell! The average could most certainly be 1/3, but what about the variance of the distribution? The population could very well have a large variance and standard deviation. Constructing a confidence interval for even 1 standard deviation out from the mean could result in a wide range of possibilities. What about three standard deviations to capture 99.8% of the possibilities? To what p-value can we expect the average to be significantly different from 1/4, 1/10, or even zero?
And that’s if the underlying population distribution is normal. What if your guesses aren’t truly random? Humans are notorious for their quirks that result in biased choices. Oh you’ll randomly guess? Except for this one that you’re kind of sure of, but will most likely get killed by that CFA trap?
I’m f***ing losing it guys.
 
correct, money_manager, and that’s partially why gambling techniques like the Martingale betting system ultimately fails. ”there’s no way the house could win 10 hands in a row” until they do.
Similarly, “there’s no way the CFA would make C the correct answer 10 times in a row” until they do. Guessing A for those answers gives you a big fat zero.
 
Statistics aside, OP does lightening the mood.
He made me a bit relaxed
(I don’t know whether that or the sleeping pill i just took)
 
thearmanda wrote:
Statistics aside, OP does lightening the mood.
He made me a bit relaxed
(I don’t know whether that or the sleeping pill i just took)
Click to expand...
My post was supposed to be a joke too but I guess after studying for 14 days straight you just aren’t funny!
 
I’m with you cip!
We’re obviously not going to aim for 50% when studying or taking the exam, but it’s a nice thought to stop you panicking when you’re struggling. No idea on a few of the calculation questions? All I need to do is get 3 of the general knowledge questions correct and even if I have to guess the rest i’m on track for a pass!
 
Nice. And now everybody is relaxed.
One more day and golf season begins.
 
This actually did make me feel slightly better; I think I know half. I think the problem is a lot of people here have strong academic records and are used to getting high 90’s so mid 60’s to low 70’s doesn’t feel right.
 
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