carthurj wrote:
heres a good way to understand the first formula.
easiest way to gain intuition is too make up some numbers…
You have a 100,000 portfolio today.
this year you make 15%
of that 15%,
- 5% is interest, taxed at 30%
- 3% is dividends, taxed at 25%
- 3% is realized capital gains, taxed at 20%
- 4% is unrealized capital gains, taxed at 20%
So at the end of the year your account is worth before realized taxes = 100,000 * 1.15 = 115,000
and you have a current tax liability of:
100,000 * 5% * 30% = 1,500
100,000 * 3% * 25% = 750
100,000 * 3% * 20% = 600
= 2,850
Therefore your account after paying realized taxes is worth 115,000 - 2,850 = 112,150 for an after realized tax return of 12.15%
Calculating the realized yearly tax liability is easy as we just did above, but the complicating matter is how to adjust for the deferred tax on the unrealized capital gains.
Heres how… you know that your account will grow by 12,150 this year after you pay realized taxes. you also know that you deferred 100,000 * 4% * 20% = $800 until you sell your investment… so the effective deferred capital gains tax rate is simply 800 / 12,150 = 6.58%. That is to say that for every 12.15% your account grows, if you generate returns in the same proportion as above, you will effectively still owe 6.58% of this amount (800/12,150) once you sell your investment. Therefore in the future value formula for your ending account balance, this is the effective tax rate you should use against the 12.15% growth rate.
Using the terrible textbook formula….
proportions
- interest = 5000/15000 = 33.33%
- dividends = 3000/15000 = 20%
- realized cap = 3000/15000 = 20%
= 20% * (1 - 33.33% - 20% - 20%) / ( 1 - 33.33% * 30% - 20% * 25% - 20% * 20%) = 6.58%
cheers!
Sheer Brilliance. This is what pure understanding can do to you instead of mugging formula. You will not forget the underlying concept, yet may not recall the dreadful formula. Thanks Carthruj. Now, I know for sure that I will at least never forget the effective tax rate formula.
Infact , carthruj, I am making a copy of your example in my notes. Hope it is ok.