The CFAI Scoring Curve

Robbon1

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I know I did well on this exam, there's no possible way the CFAI can look at my exam and say I don't know the cirriculum. Having said that I can't stop thinking about how the curve is going to fall what the minimum passing score will be... so stressfull. Anyone have any thoughts?
 
Same here Robbon1,

I did make some silly mistakes but i'm pretty sure that everyone did so.....and the curve should not be too swayed.

The only thing i fear is that the margin of error this time around would be pretty less becoz of the sheer number of candidates.

scary... :(
 
I have a feeling the minimum score required to pass this time around might be higher than before, although I hope we all pass and move on to the next level!
 
The minimum score in my opinion cannot be above 70%. They take top 1% and multiply by 70% and that's your minimum score. Since noone has gotten a 100 on the exam the minimum score is actually below 70% I'm assuming 65% if top 1% gets around 90-95..
 
badem Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The minimum score in my opinion cannot be above
> 70%. They take top 1% and multiply by 70% and
> that's your minimum score. Since noone has gotten
> a 100 on the exam the minimum score is actually
> below 70% I'm assuming 65% if top 1% gets
> around 90-95..

How do you know that?
 
badem Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The minimum score in my opinion cannot be above
> 70%. They take top 1% and multiply by 70% and
> that's your minimum score. Since noone has gotten
> a 100 on the exam the minimum score is actually
> below 70% I'm assuming 65% if top 1% gets
> around 90-95..


But don't forget that they use Angoff method to fine-tune the curve
 
Does agnoff method means that some questions are of more weightage than other less difficult questions ?
 
yourstruly Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Does agnoff method means that some questions are
> of more weightage than other less difficult
> questions ?


I don't think so, I think it just means that they decide you should get more of the easy questions right if you are a qualified candidate, so if there are more easy questions the total you are expected to know goes up, and if it is harder the total goes down.
 
RE. The angoff method.

The CFAI uses modified Angoff method which means they get a number of qualified CFA's and ask them to estimate, for each question, the probability of a minimum passing score candidate, i.e. a border-line candidate, answering the question correctly. They then sum these probabilities and divide by the number of qualified CFA's....that gives them the MPS.

If the questions were all easy ones, the MPS could be > 70%....if the questions were all hard the MPS will be lower.

As far as I am aware, CFAI does not release the MPS...even after the results are published.

See http://www.cfainstitute.org/cfaprog/overview/pdf/IntoOur5thDecade.pdf and Google 'Modified Angoff Method'.

Good luck everyone.
 
Monster Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> RE. The angoff method.
>
> The CFAI uses modified Angoff method which means
> they get a number of qualified CFA's and ask them
> to estimate, for each question, the probability of
> a minimum passing score candidate, i.e. a
> border-line candidate, answering the question
> correctly. They then sum these probabilities and
> divide by the number of qualified CFA's....that
> gives them the MPS.
>
> If the questions were all easy ones, the MPS could
> be > 70%....if the questions were all hard the MPS
> will be lower.
>
> As far as I am aware, CFAI does not release the
> MPS...even after the results are published.
>
> See
> http://www.cfainstitute.org/cfaprog/overview/pdf/I
> ntoOur5thDecade.pdf and Google 'Modified Angoff
> Method'.
>
> Good luck everyone.

Yeah, the CFAI never releases the MPS so the poor folks like us can continually guess about something we'll never see.
 
Maybe I can't read, but I can't find anything in the PDF that says anything about the MPS being 70% of the top 1%. If someone can find it, please direct me to the page and line.

Thanks.
 
I found this useful link to a CFA exam scoring session -

http://lair2000.net/Wizard_Pictures3_Download/3wizard48.jpg
 
That's good slorte! I always thought they just sacrificed a chicken and then examined its entrails...ha ha ha.

Anyway 4Tay, I think that the rumour about the MPS being 70% x Average score of top 1 % is a fallacy.

Best of luck!
 
4Tay and Monster,

It USED to be 70% of the top 1% a while ago. Now it seems that it is solely set by the panel of CFA institute governors that determine the MPS, people are just trying to get a general idea I think of possible MPS but I guess after reading that pdf on it there won't be much help. They could likely determine that 69% is the MPS of the just qualified candidate.

Thinking about it now it could be that the default pass rate is 70% then the MPS score is adjusted down for difficulty/throw away questions with 70% staying the MPS if it is actually easier, but again that is pure speculation.
 
Hi legacy01,

I agree that 70% is a good benchmark for the MPS. SchweserNotes says you need to answer 70% correct in order to pass so I reckon that's as good a guide as any.
 
Agree, otherwise it doesn't make sense at all, if you get 70% and still don't pass...
 
I talked to instructors from Stalla and Schweser; they both said they take 70% of top 1%. If you're on the borderline I think it all comes down to ethics.
 
do you guys think because so many people made a mistake of not noticing the IFRS disclaimer, the curve would be adjusted downward?
I partly blame CFAI for this as well. They just mentioned it a month before our exam and my mind couldn't really change its gear while I was revising.
 
So glad I caught the IFRS section! Though I found only two or three questions would be directly affected by an IFRS/GAAP switch. I doubt it will be adjusted downwards, though. Who knows?
 
when you are borderline and it comes down to the ethics, does it mean if you are above 70% in ethics, would just be enough?? or they take from the best performers down to the last one eligible to pass...so 70% might just not do? anyone knows how this works exactly, because I have heard thousand of versions...
 
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