Personally, I’m a huge Tebow fan and very biased. I like him for reasons ranging from “he came from the SEC” (I’m an SEC fan) and “he’s reinstating positive role models at a time when players are getting gun, drug, dog fighting and rape charges and stomping on other players while they’re on the ground” to “he’s exciting to watching and represents a message that belief, doing it your own way and hard work can overcome imperfect genetics, traditional tactics and raw statistical analysis” at a time when the economy is down and the American spectator needs that message. In my mind, this is what sports is truly about.
But that’s not what you asked, so focusing on the actual question: “Lucky or good?”
Let me start by saying, you can’t deny he has had some very lucky breaks, like last game, Chicago’s mistakes running the ball late. BUT, he also had receivers drop SIX catchable passes, one that is agreed would have been a touchdown in the first quarter, and a blocked 28 yard FG attempt. You factor that in and he wouldn’t have needed the Bear screw ups. The point here, is luck goes both ways, but Tebow capitalizes better on the late errors.
Here’s my argument in favor of “Good”
-You can’t go 7-1 in pro football being lucky, if you believe skill has any roll in the game. You just can’t.
-You especially can’t go 7-1 with a team that was 1-4 starting the season. PEOPLE KEEP OVERLOOKING THIS. He took one of the worst teams in the league. They replaced him and no one else, and he went 7-1 with the SAME TEAM, beating the ENTIRE division ON THE ROAD.
-But what about the defense?!? The defense is great. It is, but where was this same defense when they were getting beat early in the season? Why did it suddenly and instantly work under Tebow’s leadership? Where was it when they beat Minnesota 35-32?
-He has 11 passing touchdowns to 2 interceptions this season as a rookie, this comes back to not creating those “lucky” moments for the other team.
-He’s getting better. His last two games, very slow starts in the first three quarters, he finished with better than 50% completion rates and 200+ yards passing. He’s also proven he can rush for 100+ yards in the same game as his running back. This forces defenses to adapt in a way that aids their traditional running game.
-He’s done this before, he has been instrumental to the Gators in two national titles and the first ever sophomore to win a heisman. He has a documented history of winning his way.
-Patriots linebacker (and star at Florida) Brandon Spikes was at a recruiting camp with Tebow before either signed to the Gators and turned to an ESPN analyst and said “I’m going where ever he goes.” After just having met him. He has a history of inspiring players on both sides of the ball and getting the intangible effect of rallying teams that don’t show up in his personal stats. Leadership is a documented phenomenon in history, don’t discount it. It’s won wars and built / toppled empires, I don’t think pro football is beyond it’s reach.
-Lastly, people keep discounting the concept of a running quarterback. Let me explain why this works. For their entire lives, defenders train for a situation in which the quarterback hands off to the running back, then the QB stands there uselessly. This means 11 defenders are trying to circumvent 9 blockers and reach 1 runner, or net 2 defenders are going for the tackle. You can always count on having a +2 advantage on a run, so defensive formations are built around the concept of “in the case of a run, do we have our +2 in a position where we can plug potential openings on either side.” Ok, well, when the QB runs (and is 245 lbs 6’3 and great at reading blockers, etc) the running back now blocks. This creates a +1 defender situation. This is in fact a very big deal. If your +2 defenders are spaced with one on either side of the field, canceling the free guy on the same side as the running QB, means, there is now no one free on that side to make the tackle. As a result, entire defenses must train and adapt for a situation they’ll only face maybe twice a season, whereas, the offense is reading and running a scheme they’ve been playing all year, or for Tebow, his entire life. This is why in my mind, the pundits are wrong when they say it won’t work for long (they’ve been saying the Bears D would show the Bronco’s for like a year now). Because it’s simply a hard situation to adapt to and one that will continue to fluster D’s, especially as Tebow develops as a passer.
-Lastly, I’d like to add two things. 1) He is ranked 14th of 32 QB’s on ESPN’s page by passer rating. So, it’s not stellar, but not bad for a rookie on what I believe is an average team at best when they weren’t playing under him. 2) Concentrating all of your play such as all of your completions in several drives is not necessarily a bad thing. A scoring drive is one that by definition, typically contains a series of successive completions. I’d much rather have all my completions put in one drive and thus resulting in a score than having them spread out over 10 non-scoring drives.
All that being said, there’s definitely room for improvement, particularly in the first 3 quarters if they want to be playoff material.