What are my odds of passing?

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rajiv1818

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left 30 minutes worth of question untouched in AM session. Did resonably well in PM session i.e. expecting get 80%. so what are my chaces if i manage to get 100 in AM session and 140 approax. in PM session. Feeling very pissed off. How could i become so oblivious of time management. Help me guys with your opinion.
 
S2000magician thnx for d reply and educating me. FYI, i am not siiting at the gambling table and looking for hardcore probability based estimates. i just hinted at the probality we talk about in everyday life. Hope being a native speaker, you now understand what i really meant. it had nothing to do with odds for or odds against.
 
if you got the score you think 240/360 then probably 50-50 chance.
for leaving 30 blank, thats an amazing score
 
I think you have got 60% chance of winning
Good Luck Abu Bakar ;)
 
100 in AM and 140 in Pm will lead u to 67% in total (close to 70%), then depends on the MPS I guess. better chances…………
 
if you got a 67% overall, you will very likely pass.
however, why were you so behind on completing the AM? If it was because it takes you a while to write out the correct answers, you are okay. On the other hand, if it was because you weren’t sure the answers and had to think hard about them, then you are probably in trouble and over estimating your score. The AM section was geared to you knowing it or not right away.
 
folks with names starting with ‘r’ needs to make a weighted probability adjustment - .2%
 
30% chance you pass. the fact that you left blank a ton may imply that you overestimated how many correct answers you really got.
 
igor555 wrote:
folks with names starting with ‘r’ needs to make a weighted probability adjustment - .2%
Click to expand...
You forgot the -5% weighting for people trying to figure out their probability of passing
 
Or you could take a different approach:
As you’ve already sat the exam the probability is either 100% or 0%. As you cannot know this then becomes a question of quantum mechanics and you have actually passed (woo-hoo) and failed (D’oh), up until the point at which you can observe the results and only one state exists.
Let us know how you get on
 
Left 30 minutes BLANK?! am i the only one who sees this as a long shot? how can you leave 30 minutes blank and have a 50/50 chance, so much would have to go right after that
 
Just guessing here, but leaving 17% of the AM unfinished, you’re gonna have a bad time. I wish you the best, but I’ve found it best to knock down expected values by at least 10% based on stupid mistakes. I would be surprised to see the AM above 70% on most anyones just based on the stipulations they use to bring down scores. 70% of the remaining 180.. and then hopefully a 75 in the pm, you’re looking at 240ish out of 360. That’s a coin toss.
 
clip1989 wrote:Left 30 minutes BLANK?! am i the only one who sees this as a long shot?
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Evidently not:
itera wrote:30% chance you pass. the fact that you left blank a ton may imply that you overestimated how many correct answers you really got.
Click to expand...
 
From the discussion so far it seems passing with 30 m blank in AM would be a one-off. I wonder how a borderliner (those who squeak through L3 every year) perform in AM generally. Is it that hard to get 105 (70%) out of 150. Don’t judge me with my AM performance as I managed time poorly. Not a single question seemed unknown to me, sounds funny though. In PM I expect 141-150. I know I have to discount few more points from the 150 of AM. Just curious to know, how it sounds someone answered all the Qs in AM and managed to pass on the borderline!
 
Well, if it’s a long shot I’m in the same boat, rajiv1818. In fact I probably left 40-50 pts untouched. FML
 
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