what's the probability of passing when....X questions are correct

sunnyrollen

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I am guessing I have 80 questions wrong in all.. What do you guys think is the probability that I will pass?
 
what makes you think 80 wrong? did you circle 80 questions on the exam?
 
If you got 160 / 240 right, for sure, then you passed, no question about it.
 
Yeah.. that's what I was expecting from you. If you attempt an exam I think u can guess.. conservatively.. how many are for sure wrong. Its just a guess no.. I might be in the range of +3-5% or -25%.

Your response doesn;t answer my question though!
 
I am trying to find a no. that will help me assess the probability of me passing this time. If its 150 questions right do u still think I have a chance?
 
f2d Wrote:
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> If you got 160 / 240 right, for sure, then you
> passed, no question about it.


160 / 240 is a 67%...how is that passing????
 
That's what baffles me.... I have read posts that say anything above 65% is typically a pass.. sometimes even upto 63% + is a pass...Dunno how true is all thatand what's the basis.
 
It depends on how they determine the Minimum Passing Score... I'm pretty sure the MPL is different every year.

They apparently use the "Angoff Method" to determine the MPL for each exam

From what I've seen on this board and from talking with the few people who have the designation higher than a 65% should pass.
 
70% of 99th percentile. If the 99th percentile is a 95%, 66% is passing. Since no one ever has gotten 100%, the 99th percentile is highly unlikely to be above 95%
 
Its tough to tell since we dont know the system.. you just have to wait and see pass or fail.. I scored below 60 in june on all mocks or samples, then took the exam and didnt feel it went any better.. But scored in band 10... So who knows what they do in the room when they decide, but if you dont get more than I got right last time, you probably wont pass.. How many did I get right? I have no idea... Hoping i did better this time as i was mid 60's on most samples, dont know if it was enough tho.
 
Does anybody know about how the ethics enhancement works if you do well on Ethics? I heard there was some sort of boost there???
 
shakespeare Wrote:
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> Does anybody know about how the ethics enhancement
> works if you do well on Ethics? I heard there was
> some sort of boost there???


If you are boarderline and your ethics > 70%, they will probably pass you. If your Ethics was bad, they may fail you.
 
Don't know how it works, but the guy i know who has passed all three told me to "focus on ethics in your last days, it will pay off" *wink* *wink*

So from what he said, it think its there... though not sure how it factors in
 
I have heard this too.. and I agree that they put heavy emphasis on Ethics, especially if you are a borderline candidate... good point Dan.
 
I saw on the CFA institute website 2 interesting facts:

- The initial pass mark is calculated as follows: Take the top 1% of exams results, average the score, work out 70% of that score, that is the pass mark.

Thus the theoretical maximum for the passmark is 70%. That said, given that no one is really ever going to get 100% (some will of course but certainly only a very small number), and that the top 1% of exams accounts for quite a large number of people, the actual passmark is likely to be slightly less than 70%.

Its also true about the ethics enhancement if you are borderline. Not sure what they consider a good ethics score - probly >70 though. From the website:

FAQs: CFA Program Candidates

What is the �ethics adjustment�?

The Board of Governors instituted a policy many years ago to place particular emphasis on ethics. Starting with the 1996 exams, the performance on the ethics section became a factor in the pass/fail decision for candidates whose total scores bordered the minimum pass score.

CFA Institute has a policy of not releasing either the minimum passing score or individual candidate scores. Consequently, CFA Institute does not release specific information about the ethics adjustment or the candidates who were affected. The adjustment has had a net positive effect on candidate scores (and thus pass rates) in most exam sessions. The published pass rates therefore always take into account the ethics adjustment for borderline candidates.
 
i don't believe in the ethics boost. no one has been able to confirm this. it's purely speculation. someone will post low scores, but do well in ethics, and then they'll say that cfai pushes you over the edge if you do well in ethcis. so it has nothing to do with being able to score 60% in all areas except ethics and still be able to pull a 66% and still have a shot at passing?
 
maybe i should do a little more research before opening my mouth...
 
If you got 150 questions right, for certain, then you also passed.

150 + (240 - 150) / 4 = 172.5 / 240 = 71.8%

That's assuming you took blind guesses at 90 questions w/o any answer elimination.

The problem is it's hard to say how many questions you got correct *for certain*. Even if you think you were sure you still might've been wrong.
 
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