Who's long?

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ryguy904

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Who's long in this market right now?

I recently when trolling for some GS around $180 and BAC around $47. However, I get the feeling that I may be a little early to the party...


Curious to hear what others are looking at right now.



I'm interested in:

IGT @ $34 --- looking cheap, am I the only one that understands the replacement cycle?
GOOG < $500 --- taken down too much because hiring people, c'mon
CSCO @ $28.50 --- did anyone read the Chambers interview in FT?
SHLD@ $130 --- all of a sudden Eddie is a moron?
DENN@ $3.85 --- super quarter and getting pancaked this morning.
 
If I had the capital, I'd be longing financials soon, they'll probably drop a little bit more. BSC was close to $100 this morning, that seems to be getting on the cheap end I would say, regardless of the company's problems
 
my next purchase will be an OTM Oct Put on FXI.
 
I just bought VONAGE stock. I heard they're going to buy Google and spinoff something or something dividend buyback yeah go go.
 
virginCFAhooker Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I just bought VONAGE stock. I heard they're going
> to buy Google and spinoff something or something
> dividend buyback yeah go go.


I heard Microsoft, but I did a Bloomberg search and couldn't confirm....
 
speaking of gs, how are people looking at the brokers? 9-10x earnings is on the cheaper side, but i wonder if they're going to trade down to their historic lows of 6-7x. i haven't been following the capital markets for very long, but this seems like one of the worst credit crunches in decades, so it seems reasonable that the brokers might trade down to historic lows to reflect that. i am going to back up the truck if they ever get down to those multiples. thoughts here?
 
FrankArabia Wrote:
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> you guys must have some serious money to be buying
> google


There is obviously no difference between buying 1 share of Google or 100 shares of a $5 stock!!! Why do people say stuff like this?
 
Take a look a KSS, you can buy this name for only 12.5x '08 EPS, that's a decade low valuation.
 
I'll buy it if you tell me (1) why it's this cheap now, and (2) what will make it get expensive again.
 
drs Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> FrankArabia Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > you guys must have some serious money to be
> buying
> > google
>
>
> There is obviously no difference between buying 1
> share of Google or 100 shares of a $5 stock!!!
> Why do people say stuff like this?


the gross cost is the same. but calling in and buying 1 share? i haven't seen a client with 1 google share in his account yet. most buy in board lots of 100.

in any case, i made that statement because nobody here daytrades google simply for the fact that it is too costly. theoretically speaking, you're absolutely right there is no difference.

in addition to this, if you have only 1 google share, you restrict yourself with the options that you can write.

but now i pose the question, why do companies do stock splits?
 
I'm long on the total stock market because I believe in the long-term (1+ years) fundamentals of the economy--still relatively low interest rates, historically low energy prices, high consumer spending, low unemployment, somewhat improved trade deficit, etc. (Plus I'm hoping for a rate cut.) Couldn't bet on certain stocks right now (except gold).



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at Monday, August 6, 2007 at 05:16PM by kkent.
 
Why is it cheap?

Weak back to school, estimates haven't come down yet, and they could miss comps for July. This was already priced in at 15x - 16x '08.

Why will the multiple expand from here?

This company is a legitimate 18-20% grower and shouldn't sell at a discount to the market. Even if you think earnings have 10% downside from here the stock would still only trade at a market multiple.

Oh yeah, I also think Vera Wang is going to drive both average ticket and traffic higher over the near term.
 
kkent, your points largely argue for a rate hike, not a rate cut.
 
Tobias, I know, but bankruptcy of large lending institutions and the fundamental weakness of the housing market (a huge contributor to economic growth and America's lone savings vehicle) argue in favor of a rate cut.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at Monday, August 6, 2007 at 05:39PM by kkent.
 
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