2011 CFA Test, Question 3B:
One would think that increased inflation would lead an endowment to decreased risk tolerance because it would erode the value of real returns, and require more liquidity to cover the higher nominal expenses, thus lowering risk tolerance. But Schweser says:
Answer says that an increase in expected inflation “Increases risk tolerance: An increase in expected inflation may cause the endowment to demand a higher real return on investments to compensate for a perceived increase in risk. This can lead to an increase in expected long-term real returns for the portfolio. As expected real returns increase, with the nominal spending rule held constant, the risk tolerance of the endowment increases.”
What up with that?
One would think that increased inflation would lead an endowment to decreased risk tolerance because it would erode the value of real returns, and require more liquidity to cover the higher nominal expenses, thus lowering risk tolerance. But Schweser says:
Answer says that an increase in expected inflation “Increases risk tolerance: An increase in expected inflation may cause the endowment to demand a higher real return on investments to compensate for a perceived increase in risk. This can lead to an increase in expected long-term real returns for the portfolio. As expected real returns increase, with the nominal spending rule held constant, the risk tolerance of the endowment increases.”
What up with that?