My Confidence Level; and is Blinxbuckles a retaker, genius or naive?

Thank you captain obvious. If I got a 55% on the AM session I am in trouble!?!?!?!?!
Some quick math. There are 180 points available in AM session. To get a 70%+ your margin for error is 54 points… If you 1) finished the PM session in the allotted time (I did) and 2) confidently answered each without having to resort to just making stuff up I feel that that 54 point cushion is quite large. That said I am not 100% confident but I have been sleeping comfortably.
 
I, for one, am pumped about the release of the AM in december. I have some strong opinions about 2 questions in there and can’t wait to vent my anger…
 
15percenthurdle wrote:
I want to echo blinx. I too am very confident and think it’s very petty of a handful of people on here who are certain that “if you are confident you likely didn’t do that well”. No I’m pretty sure that if I am confident I did relatively well thanks. Morning difficulty is overrated in my opinion. It strikes me as a session that is hard to crush but the partial credit caveat creates an opportunity for a floor if you know the material and can show that. The PM was easy - it wouldn’t shock me if outside of ethics I got almost a perfect PM score
Click to expand...
100% on PM…nice work.
 
After the exam, I wrote down all points which I made and every single topic, which I screwed up (knowing that it is going to get blurry after 2 weeks or 2 months). Reading this discussion I took a look to recap: I figured that I had 15 topics on the positives and 4 on the negatives… So if I do simple math as a proxy for what to expect overall I get 78% on the positive side. Considering that I might still have some additional mistakes, I would substract 8-10%, which brings me to 68-70%…
hope this will do it, since I invested a lot of time and mocks till it drops… What helped a lot was that I was inspired to take a look at tax topics in the morning on the way there…
 
Phoenix, I’m impressed that you were able to recollect every single topic after sitting for the exam. I definitely would not have been able to do this.
 
I_am_the_Highway wrote:
I, for one, am pumped about the release of the AM in december. I have some strong opinions about 2 questions in there and can’t wait to vent my anger…
Click to expand...
Me too. Unless I pass, in which case I could care less about it.
 
I_am_the_Highway wrote:
I, for one, am pumped about the release of the AM in december. I have some strong opinions about 2 questions in there and can’t wait to vent my anger…
Click to expand...
I thought the same last year… Then, when it was released, I read the first question and almost fell asleep so decided to accept the victory and move on.
 
… The positive ones were more general like GIPS, Derivatives, Behavioral Finance etc. and the negatives which I recollected were single questions, which I googled after the exam and I figured out that I was wrong. Some of the topics were also discussed by exam takers during the break and after the exam. I am sure there were much more than the 19, which I could remember… However, I took this as a proxy! Let’s hope the best…
 
Wow, reading this has crushed my confidence to zero. I studied for this a month (maybe 150-200 hours), then I reflected on it for 2 months which is exactly why it created an expectation of miracly passing.I must drown it with lots of alochol this weekend. Quite impossible that I went through. One for the team or so.
 
My base case scenario : (67AM and 70PM )/2= 68.5 x probability .5 = 34.25
My high case : 73AM and 75PM = 74 x probability .2 = 14.8
My worst case: 63AM and 67PM = 65 x probability .3 = 19.5
Weighted average score = 68.55
Potential outcome : “Pass” with 87% probability !
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top